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For more information about this area, please contact:

Russ Tronstad
Extension Economist

Phone: (520) 621-2425
Email: tronstad@ag.arizona.edu

Cow Culling Decision Support System

Biological and Market Factors Combined

Biological and market factors surrounding the culling decision are complex. These factors are dynamic in nature with a great deal of uncertainty regarding future productivity and prices. The model solves for the value of pregnancy testing and optimal culling decisions using a dynamic programming model. Factors incorporated into the model are cow age, calf price, replacement price, slaughter price, season (May or November), and production costs. The stochastic nature of market prices and the dynamics of biological productivity are incorporated into the dynamic programming algorithm so that the future consequences of current decisions are accounted for in the modeling framework. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology is used to summarize results from the dynamic programming model in the form of a decision tree.

The article "Optimal Economic Range Cow Culling Decisions: Biological and Market Factors Combined" (pdf file, 116 kb) describes these factors in greater detail.

Note: The article requires Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded for free from the Adobe website.