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For more information about this area, please contact:

Russ Tronstad
Extension Economist

Phone: (520) 621-2425
Email: tronstad@ag.arizona.edu

Cow Culling Decision Support System

Market Factors

Market prices for replacements (2.5 year old bred heifers in $/head), eight month old sale calves (400 to 500 lb. combined steer and heifer price), and slaughter values ($/head) are considered in the analysis. Uncertainties surrounding these future prices complicate the culling decision. Average prices are often suitable for long-term analyses, but short-term price patterns are highly dependent upon current price levels. The model uses probabilities for ranges of future price movements from May to November and November to May. Historical prices show sale calf prices to be lower for November than May, the months when culling decisions are evaluated in this biannual model. These price movement probabilities are utilized in conjunction with current price levels to evaluate alternative culling strategies. Results are based most heavily on nearest price movements plus the more distant or average consequences expected over a number of years.

The article "Market Impacts on Culling Decisions" (pdf file, 118 kb) describes the procedures in greater detail.

Note: The article requires Adobe Acrobat Reader, which can be downloaded for free from the Adobe website.