SAFFORD MAR 13, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************ | **** 247 *** | ************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 5 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 This Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 37 27 40 ---- Normal 73 38 29 43 Recorded 78 38 14 58 0.00 2010 72 41 28 43 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 57.6 MAR 12 ; Min = 52.9 MAR 6 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Sunny & very warm this week. High pressure will remain in place for much of the week, resulting in very warm days & mild evenings. A Pacific storm system will move into the region this coming weekend, resulting in much cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation on Sunday or Monday. Growers preparing to plant should monitor this storm closely. Acceptable germination typically results when minimum soil temperatures (~8am) are 60F or higher. This usually occurs when air temperatures exceed 80F during the afternoon & remain above 48F at night. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! SAFFORD MAR 20, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | **************** | ****** 326 ***** | **************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 12 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 This Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 38 29 43 ---- Normal 77 40 28 57 Recorded 85 42 20 81 0.00 2010 70 37 29 34 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.6 MAR 19 ; Min = 58.3 MAR 13 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A storm system will pass through AZ on Monday & Tuesday, resulting in windy & much cooler weather with a chance for precipitation. The chances for significant precipitation are highest in central & western production areas. Drier weather will return by mid-week, but temperatures will warm slowly, approaching normal by late in the week. Acceptable germination typically results when minimum soil temperatures (~8am) are 60F or higher. This usually occurs when air temperatures exceed 80F during the afternoon & remain above 48F at night. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! SAFFORD MAR 27, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ******************* | ******** 379 ****** | ******************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 26 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 19 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 This Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 77 40 28 57 ---- Normal 74 40 29 46 Recorded 77 38 23 52 0.04 2010 77 37 22 54 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.8 MAR 21 ; Min = 57.2 MAR 23 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather conditions this week. Expect sunny & very dry weather with much warmer temperatures. Daytime highs will warm a few degrees each day & approach record levels late in the week. Several storm systems are expected to pass north of AZ this week producing some periods of windy weather. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units (CHUs) exceeds 700 & preferably before CHU exceeds 600 (see graph above). Soils warm to acceptable levels for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows remain above 48F. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! SAFFORD APR 3, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *********************** | ********** 469 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 2 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 26 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 This Week : APR 3 - APR 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 40 29 46 ---- Normal 78 42 29 61 Recorded 87 47 25 90 0.00 2010 81 43 22 69 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 64.9 APR 1 ; Min = 60.3 MAR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Current forecasts call for an unsettled week of weather. Sunny & mild conditions will prevail through Tuesday. A storm system will pass through the region mid- week resulting in increased winds, cooler temperatures & a chance for precipita- tion. A second system is expected to impact the region this weekend resulting in another chance for precipitation & even cooler temperatures. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Soils warm to acceptable lev- els for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows stay above 48F. Seed is most sensitive to cold the 1st day after planting. Avoid planting in cold soils! SAFFORD APR 10, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | **************************** | ************ 550 *********** | **************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 9 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 2 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 3 - APR 9 This Week : APR 10 - APR 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 78 42 29 61 ---- Normal 81 43 25 71 Recorded 81 49 30 81 0.00 2010 84 48 28 90 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.2 APR 3 ; Min = 54.3 APR 9 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect a return to normal or above normal temperatures this week. High pressure will return Monday, leading to sunny & dry conditions & a quick return to normal temperatures. A storm system is forecast to move across the Great Basin Wednes- day. This system is not expected to produce precipitation, but may produce some windy conditions & a few degrees of cooling. High pressure will redevelop late in the week & bring a return to clear skies & above normal temperatures. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Soils warm to acceptable lev- els for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows stay above 48F. SAFFORD APR 17, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ******************************* | ************** 617 ************ | ******************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 16 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 9 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 81 43 25 71 ---- Normal 84 46 28 83 Recorded 80 41 20 67 0.00 2010 77 50 43 68 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 60.1 APR 14 ; Min = 49.3 APR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of storm systems will move through the Great Basin this week, producing breezy weather, but only minor changes in temperature. Expect sunny skies, low humidity & above normal temperatures with little chance for precipitation. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Plant population should run between 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. A quick way to check population is to count the number of plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths associated with 1/1000 acre are: 40" rows = 13'1"; 38" rows = 13'9"; 36" rows = 14'6" and 30" rows = 17'5". SAFFORD APR 24, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************************************* | **************** 732 **************** | ************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 23 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 16 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 17 - APR 23 This Week : APR 24 - APR 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 84 46 28 83 ---- Normal 85 47 28 88 Recorded 89 53 28 115 0.00 2010 81 45 31 76 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.2 APR 21 ; Min = 63.5 APR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will build over the Southwest this week, resulting clear skies, & a gradual warming trend. Expect periods of breezy weather as storm systems pass north of AZ. Temperatures should warm to 5-10F above normal by Thurday. Full season varieties should be planted as soon as possible. Medium & shorter maturity varieties are better suited for May planting dates (see graph). Plant population should run between 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. A quick way to check population is to count the number of plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths equal to 1/1000 acre are: 40"rows = 13'1"; 38"rows = 13'9"; 36"rows = 14'6" and 30"rows = 17'5". SAFFORD MAY 1, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ****************************************** | ******************* 838 ****************** | ****************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 30 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 23 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 24 - APR 30 This Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 85 47 28 88 ---- Normal 87 48 27 95 Recorded 86 53 22 106 0.00 2010 88 45 23 91 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.9 APR 30 ; Min = 63.9 APR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify this week, producing very warm & dry conditions. Temperatures should average ~10F above normal by mid-week. Some cooling is pos- sible this weekend as a storm system passes through the central Rockies. Weather conditions over the past 3 weeks have generally been good for germination. Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. To check plant pop- ulation count the plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths equal to 1/1000 acre are: 40"rows=13'1"; 38"rows=13'9"; 36"rows=14'6" & 30"rows= 17'5". Pinhead square (PHS) is an important developmental stage for young cotton. First PHSs typically form on nodes 5 through 7 at ~700 heat units after planting. SAFFORD MAY 8, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ********************************************** | ********************* 927 ******************** | ********************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAY 7 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 30 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 This Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 48 27 95 ---- Normal 91 52 30 113 Recorded 87 45 11 88 0.00 2010 86 48 21 94 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66.7 MAY 5 ; Min = 60.4 MAY 7 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A strong late spring storm system will pass through Northern AZ early this week. Expect windy conditions with low humidity & much cooler temperatures through Tuesday. No rainfall is expected with this system. High pressure will redevelop over AZ on Wednesday & produce much warmer temperatures by the weekend. Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early season developmental stage for young cotton. First PHSs typically form on nodes 5 through 7 at ~700 heat units after planting. Split applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizer are recom- mended for cotton with initial applications often applied around PHS. For more on N management see http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1243.pdf SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 22, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 660 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********** 511 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ***** 270 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15* 74 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 21 v = Heat Units on MAY 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1114; Last year = 870; Normal = 1007 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 88 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 This Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 54 31 119 ---- Normal 93 55 30 124 Recorded 84 50 28 88 0.00 2010 93 52 23 118 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 33% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .46" .46" .46" .46" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A storm system will pass through the central Rockies early this week, resulting in windy, dry and slightly cooler conditions Monday & Tuesday. High pressure will develop over AZ by mid-week & produce very warm & above normal temperatures by week's end. The period from mid-May through late June is prime time for cotton development in much of AZ. It is important to avoid water stress at this time of year. Water stress reduces growth & leads to square abortion. For fields planted into moisture the first post-plant irrigation is often applied between 700 & 1200 heat units after planting (HUAP) with an optimum window at 800-1000 HUAP. For more details see publication at http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1204.pdf SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 29, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 **************** 784 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************* 635 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ******** 394 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15**** 198 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 28 v = Heat Units on MAY 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1238; Last year = 988; Normal = 1130 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 125 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 This Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 55 30 124 ---- Normal 96 56 30 133 Recorded 95 53 23 125 0.00 2010 99 57 29 141 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 47% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .66" .57" .57" .57" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The cooler weekend weather will be short-lived. High pressure will develop over AZ this week, bringing a return to hot & dry conditions. Temperatures should run above normal through Wednesday, then cool back to normal levels late in the week. Winds will increase late in the week as a pair of storm systems pass through the central Rockies. Evaporative demand should run above normal this week. It is im- portant to avoid water stress at this time of year. Water stress reduces growth & leads to square abortion. The first post-plant irrigation for fields planted into moisture is typically applied between 700 & 1200 heat units after planting with an optimum window at 800-1000 heat units after planting. For more details see publication at http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1204.pdf SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 5, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 4/1 ****************** 915 +2 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/15*************** 766 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********** 525 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******* 329 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 4 v = Heat Units on MAY 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1369; Last year = 1129; Normal = 1261 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 130 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 This Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 56 30 133 ---- Normal 97 58 33 137 Recorded 99 55 23 130 0.00 2010 102 66 36 166 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 63% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .88" .61" .56" .56" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week. Expect sunny, hot & dry weather with moderate afternoon winds. Some moisture moved into far south- east AZ over the weekend, but this moisture is expected to dissipate early in the week without producing significant precipitation. Expect temperatures to run near normal this week. Early season developmental stages can be predicted using heat unit accumulation after planting (HUAP). First pinhead squares typically develop at ~700 HUAP; susceptible squares at ~900 HUAP; & first flowers at ~1200 HUAP. Closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress often leads to square abortion. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 12, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************* 1055 +2 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/15****************** 906 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************* 665 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15********* 469 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 11 v = Heat Units on JUN 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1509; Last year = 1295; Normal = 1399 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 140 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 This Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 58 33 137 ---- Normal 99 61 36 151 Recorded 101 57 24 140 0.00 2010 99 55 33 135 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 77% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.05" .8" .52" .52" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will remain in place over AZ this week, resulting in sunny weather with hot days & mild evenings. Humidity will remain very low & winds will remain relatively light through mid-week. Expect higher winds late in the week as a storm system passes through the Great Basin. Closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to high evaporative demand & rapid canopy growth. Early season developmental stages can be predicted using heat unit accummulation after planting (HUAP). First pinhead squares typically develop at ~700 HUAP; suscept- ible squares at ~900 HUAP; & first flowers at ~1200 HUAP (see graph above). SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 19, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1199 +1 day | | v | | | | | | 4/15********************* 1050 0 days | v| | | | | | | | 5/1 **************** 809 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************ 613 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 18 v = Heat Units on JUN 11; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1653; Last year = 1430; Normal = 1549 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 145 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 This Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 61 36 151 ---- Normal 102 61 39 156 Recorded 103 57 26 145 0.00 2010 102 64 33 165 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 87% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.38" 1.11" .68" .56" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify this week & produce the hottest temperatures of the 2011 season (to date). Expect less wind, but continued high rates of water use due to high temperatures, low humidity and rapid canopy development. Some trop- ical moisture is forecast to move northward toward AZ late this week. However, forecasters don't expect any precipitation. Current 6-14 day forecasts show a bias toward below normal precipitation (through 3 July). Longer range forecasts for July through September indicate a strong bias for above normal temperatures. Monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress often leads to square abortion -- something to be avoided with a crop that is running behind normal. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 26, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1356 +1 day | | | v | | | | | | 4/15************************ 1207 0 days | | v | | | | | | | 5/1 ******************* 966 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*************** 770 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 25 v = Heat Units on JUN 18; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1810; Last year = 1595; Normal = 1705 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 156 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 This Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 61 39 156 ---- Normal 102 66 44 168 Recorded 103 62 34 156 0.00 2010 100 70 51 179 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.69" 1.42" .98" .62" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Intense high pressure will dominate AZ weather early this week, producing hot temperatures & low humidity. A storm system will drop into the central Rockies mid-week & generate an uptick in winds & humidity with some slight cooling. Current forecasts indicate the humidity will mostly impact the eastern third of the state. While a brief period of lower humidity will follow this system, long range forecasts indicate monsoon circulation will develop by this weekend. It is unclear at this time whether the mid-week & weekend humidity will be sufficient to produce heat stress conditions in central & western production areas. Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 3, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1536 +2 days | | | v | | | | | 4/15**************************** 1387 +1 day | | |v | | | | | | 5/1 *********************** 1146 -1 day | |v | | | | | | | 5/15******************* 950 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 2 v = Heat Units on JUN 25; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1990; Last year = 1774; Normal = 1873 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 178 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 This Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 66 44 168 ---- Normal 100 67 50 169 Recorded 107 68 47 178 0.12 2010 100 68 50 174 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.84" 1.59" 1.19" .86" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Monsoon moisture surged into AZ late last week ending the very hot & dry early summer weather. Moisture was sufficient to generate afternoon & evening thunder- storms across much of the state. Heat stress developed in central & western pro- duction areas with L2 stress reported in Yuma Valley. Moisture will remain in place much of the week. Expect afternoon & evening thunderstorms & near normal temperatures through Thursday. The monsoon high is forecast to shift eastward later in the week & may allow western production areas to dry out this weekend. Temperatures will return to above normal with these drier conditions. Daily up- dates on heat stress at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 10, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1726 +2 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************** 1577 +2 days | | | v| | | | | | 5/1 *************************** 1336 0 days | | |v | | | | | | 5/15*********************** 1140 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 9 v = Heat Units on JUL 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2180; Last year = 1948; Normal = 2042 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 190 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 This Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 67 50 169 ---- Normal 98 67 54 168 Recorded 103 73 56 190 0.00 2010 102 73 61 188 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.09" 1.85" 1.46" 1.14" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 Stress L1 ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Isolated showers will continue early in the week across central and southern Arizona as a low pressure system moves through the area. This will also result in much cooler temperatures with afternoon highs only forecast to reach the mid-90s in central Arizona. Much drier air will move into the state by mid-week causing temperatures to increase back up to normal levels by the end of the week. This will also lessen the chance of precipitation by the weekend. The Colorado River area and western Arizona will remain mostly hot and dry throughout the week. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 17, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************** 1893 +2 days | | | | |v | | | | 4/15*********************************** 1744 +2 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ****************************** 1503 0 days | | | v| | | | | | 5/15************************** 1307 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 16 v = Heat Units on JUL 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2347; Last year = 2136; Normal = 2210 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 168 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 This Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 67 54 168 ---- Normal 98 68 56 171 Recorded 99 66 52 168 0.26 2010 97 72 64 181 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.92" 1.72" 1.41" 1.15" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Monsoon moisture has returned to much of AZ. Current forecasts indicate this moisture will remain in place through mid-week in central & western AZ, then be replaced by a much drier southwest flow by Thursday. Moisture will remain across southeast AZ for the entire week. For central & western production areas: expect near normal temperatures with scattered afternoon thunderstorms through mid-week, then hot & dry late in the week. For southeast production areas: expect near normal temperatures with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Heat stress (HS) was non-existent last week & total seasonal HS is running below normal. For HS updates go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 24, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ****************************************** 2079 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15*************************************** 1930 +2 days | | | | v| | | | | 5/1 ********************************** 1689 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/15****************************** 1493 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 23 v = Heat Units on JUL 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2533; Last year = 2317; Normal = 2381 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 187 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 This Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 68 56 171 ---- Normal 98 67 57 169 Recorded 99 73 60 187 0.10 2010 93 70 67 172 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.22" 2.06" 1.72" 1.45" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High levels of humidity will remain in place early this week, providing a decent chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms through Tuesday. Drier southwest flow is expected by mid-week, resulting in warmer temperatures & less chance for precipitation Wednesday through Friday. Another influx of humidity is expected this weekend. Heat stress (HS) is running well below normal this growing season due to cooler temperatures & lower humidity. Growers can obtain daily updates on HS conditions via the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt). SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 31, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | 4/1 ********************************************* 2256 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15****************************************** 2107 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ************************************* 1866 +1 day | | | | v| | | | | 5/15********************************* 1670 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 30 v = Heat Units on JUL 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2710; Last year = 2489; Normal = 2550 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 176 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 This Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 67 57 169 ---- Normal 98 69 61 173 Recorded 97 70 63 176 0.00 2010 97 68 66 172 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.96" 1.96" 1.74" 1.5" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Warm, humid weather & the remnants of tropical storm Don should produced a good chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms through Tuesday. Drier air & hotter temperatures are forecast to move into AZ once TS Don departs. The drier air should lessen heat stress (HS) levels in lower elevation production areas which have experienced some L2 stress in recent days. Higher humidity & slightly cool- er temperatures are forecast to return by the weekend. HS updates are available at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. For more information on HS see: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/az1448.pdf. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 7, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************* 2432 +4 days | | | | | |v | | | 4/15********************************************** 2283 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ***************************************** 2042 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 5/15************************************* 1846 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 6 v = Heat Units on JUL 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2886; Last year = 2661; Normal = 2722 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 176 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 This Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 69 61 173 ---- Normal 97 67 60 167 Recorded 100 69 63 176 0.49 2010 99 68 63 173 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.82" 1.82" 1.82" 1.59" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Hot & humid weather is on tap for much AZ this week. However, the flow regime may limit thunderstorm development to high elevation areas (mountains & south- east AZ). Dry, southwest flow associated with a trough off the Pacific coast may keep northwest production areas (Parker, Mohave) dry & stress free. Heat stress may be a problem in other low elevation production areas. A flow regime more conducive to thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop this weekend. Heat stress (HS) continues to run below normal levels for the growing season. HS updates are available at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 14, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 **************************************************** 2616 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15************************************************* 2467 +4 days | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ********************************************* 2226 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15***************************************** 2030 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 13 v = Heat Units on AUG 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3070; Last year = 2834; Normal = 2890 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 184 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 This Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 67 60 167 ---- Normal 97 67 60 166 Recorded 97 72 63 184 0.18 2010 99 70 64 177 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.12" 2.12" 2.12" 2.09" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Drier southwest flow is expected over central & western production areas during the first half of the week, resulting in warmer days, milder nights & little chance for precipitation. Monsoon flow will remain in place over southeast AZ throughout the week & will bring the chance for afternoon thunderstorms each day. This monsoon flow regime will push back into central & western production areas by Thursday, resulting in higher humidity & improved chances for precipitation. Expect temperatures to average above normal in all production areas this week. The long range forecast for the fall (Sep-Nov) indicates a bias toward above normal temperatures & near normal precipitation. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 21, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | 4/1 ******************************************************** 2791 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15***************************************************** 2642 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ************************************************ 2401 +2 days | | | | | v | | | 5/15******************************************** 2205 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 20 v = Heat Units on AUG 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3245; Last year = 3011; Normal = 3056 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 175 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 This Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 67 60 166 ---- Normal 97 66 59 163 Recorded 97 69 66 175 0.41 2010 91 68 66 163 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.63" 1.63" 1.63" 1.63" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will alter the flow regime this week, bringing a return to lower humidity & much hotter temperatures. The lower humidity will greatly reduce the chances for precipitation in all production areas. Longer term forecasts suggest the moist air will return for the weekend, reducing temperatures slightly while improving the chances for precipitation statewide. Long range forecasts for the fall (September - November) indicate a bias toward above normal temperatures & near normal precipitation. Heat units can be used to estimate the maturity dates late season bolls. See publication at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm for more details. SAFFORD COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *********************************************************** 2970 +6 days | | | | | | v | | 4/15******************************************************** 2821 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 **************************************************** 2580 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************ 2384 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3424; Last year = 3174; Normal = 3219 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 179 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 66 59 163 ---- Normal 95 65 59 157 Recorded 103 69 61 179 0.00 2010 97 63 62 154 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.86" 1.86" 1.86" 1.86" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure system responsible for the recent very hot weather will weaken this week, bringing a return to more typical monsoon weather. Expect slightly cooler temperatures by mid-week with increasing humidity in southeast & central production areas. The higher humidity will improve the chances for thunderstorms in southeast & central AZ. Dry southwest flow will develop over western AZ & keep humidity & the chances for precipitation low along the Colorado River. This will be the final cotton advisory for the 2011 growing season. Have a safe and profitable harvest season !