AGUILA MAR 13, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *********** | **** 226 ** | *********** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 5 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 1 day behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 This Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 70 40 30 37 ---- Normal 73 41 29 47 Recorded 75 41 24 52 0.00 2010 73 43 33 45 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 57 MAR 12 ; Min = 51.8 MAR 9 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Sunny & very warm this week. High pressure will remain in place for much of the week, resulting in very warm days & mild evenings. A Pacific storm system will move into the region this coming weekend, resulting in much cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation on Sunday or Monday. Growers preparing to plant should monitor this storm closely. Acceptable germination typically results when minimum soil temperatures (~8am) are 60F or higher. This usually occurs when air temperatures exceed 80F during the afternoon & remain above 48F at night. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! AGUILA MAR 20, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *************** | ****** 294 **** | *************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 12 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 This Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 41 29 47 ---- Normal 74 43 29 52 Recorded 79 45 29 67 0.00 2010 72 41 28 38 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 60.6 MAR 17 ; Min = 56.8 MAR 13 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A storm system will pass through AZ on Monday & Tuesday, resulting in windy & much cooler weather with a chance for precipitation. The chances for significant precipitation are highest in central & western production areas. Drier weather will return by mid-week, but temperatures will warm slowly, approaching normal by late in the week. Acceptable germination typically results when minimum soil temperatures (~8am) are 60F or higher. This usually occurs when air temperatures exceed 80F during the afternoon & remain above 48F at night. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! AGUILA MAR 27, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | **************** | ****** 317 ***** | **************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 26 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 19 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 This Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 43 29 52 ---- Normal 72 42 30 45 Recorded 66 40 30 23 0.17 2010 72 39 24 42 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 58.5 MAR 21 ; Min = 51.4 MAR 22 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather conditions this week. Expect sunny & very dry weather with much warmer temperatures. Daytime highs will warm a few degrees each day & approach record levels late in the week. Several storm systems are expected to pass north of AZ this week producing some periods of windy weather. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units (CHUs) exceeds 700 & preferably before CHU exceeds 600 (see graph above). Soils warm to acceptable levels for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows remain above 48F. Seed is most sensitive to cold during the first 24 hours after planting. Avoid planting into cold soils! AGUILA APR 3, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ******************** | ******** 401 ******* | ******************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 2 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 26 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 This Week : APR 3 - APR 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 72 42 30 45 ---- Normal 77 45 30 63 Recorded 84 47 30 85 0.00 2010 75 41 22 52 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66 APR 2 ; Min = 56.1 MAR 27 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Current forecasts call for an unsettled week of weather. Sunny & mild conditions will prevail through Tuesday. A storm system will pass through the region mid- week resulting in increased winds, cooler temperatures & a chance for precipita- tion. A second system is expected to impact the region this weekend resulting in another chance for precipitation & even cooler temperatures. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Soils warm to acceptable lev- els for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows stay above 48F. Seed is most sensitive to cold the 1st day after planting. Avoid planting in cold soils! AGUILA APR 10, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *********************** | ********** 453 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 9 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 2 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 3 - APR 9 This Week : APR 10 - APR 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 77 45 30 63 ---- Normal 79 45 26 68 Recorded 72 44 27 52 0.46 2010 79 43 24 60 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.3 APR 3 ; Min = 55 APR 9 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect a return to normal or above normal temperatures this week. High pressure will return Monday, leading to sunny & dry conditions & a quick return to normal temperatures. A storm system is forecast to move across the Great Basin Wednes- day. This system is not expected to produce precipitation, but may produce some windy conditions & a few degrees of cooling. High pressure will redevelop late in the week & bring a return to clear skies & above normal temperatures. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Soils warm to acceptable lev- els for germination when daytime highs exceed 80F & lows stay above 48F. AGUILA APR 17, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************************** | *********** 512 ********** | ************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 16 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 9 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 45 26 68 ---- Normal 82 48 28 81 Recorded 76 43 28 58 0.00 2010 75 45 31 56 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.6 APR 16 ; Min = 48.9 APR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of storm systems will move through the Great Basin this week, producing breezy weather, but only minor changes in temperature. Expect sunny skies, low humidity & above normal temperatures with little chance for precipitation. Full season varieties should be planted before the annual accumulation of heat units exceeds 600 & no later than 700 (see graph). Plant population should run between 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. A quick way to check population is to count the number of plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths associated with 1/1000 acre are: 40" rows = 13'1"; 38" rows = 13'9"; 36" rows = 14'6" and 30" rows = 17'5". AGUILA APR 24, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ****************************** | ************* 604 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 23 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 16 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 17 - APR 23 This Week : APR 24 - APR 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 48 28 81 ---- Normal 84 50 29 89 Recorded 84 51 34 92 0.00 2010 79 45 28 71 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.8 APR 18 ; Min = 64.9 APR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will build over the Southwest this week, resulting clear skies, & a gradual warming trend. Expect periods of breezy weather as storm systems pass north of AZ. Temperatures should warm to 5-10F above normal by Thurday. Full season varieties should be planted as soon as possible. Medium & shorter maturity varieties are better suited for May planting dates (see graph). Plant population should run between 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. A quick way to check population is to count the number of plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths equal to 1/1000 acre are: 40"rows = 13'1"; 38"rows = 13'9"; 36"rows = 14'6" and 30"rows = 17'5". AGUILA MAY 1, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ********************************** | *************** 683 ************** | ********************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 30 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 23 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 1 day ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 24 - APR 30 This Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 84 50 29 89 ---- Normal 86 50 26 95 Recorded 81 50 23 81 0.00 2010 86 48 20 94 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 69.8 APR 29 ; Min = 64.9 APR 27 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify this week, producing very warm & dry conditions. Temperatures should average ~10F above normal by mid-week. Some cooling is pos- sible this weekend as a storm system passes through the central Rockies. Weather conditions over the past 3 weeks have generally been good for germination. Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/acre. To check plant pop- ulation count the plants in 1/1000 of an acre, then multiply by 1000. Row lengths equal to 1/1000 acre are: 40"rows=13'1"; 38"rows=13'9"; 36"rows=14'6" & 30"rows= 17'5". Pinhead square (PHS) is an important developmental stage for young cotton. First PHSs typically form on nodes 5 through 7 at ~700 heat units after planting. AGUILA MAY 8, 2011 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *************************************** | ****************** 777 **************** | *************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAY 7 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 30 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 This Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 86 50 26 95 ---- Normal 88 54 30 113 Recorded 88 47 16 93 0.00 2010 82 48 23 81 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 71.1 MAY 7 ; Min = 63.5 MAY 2 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A strong late spring storm system will pass through Northern AZ early this week. Expect windy conditions with low humidity & much cooler temperatures through Tuesday. No rainfall is expected with this system. High pressure will redevelop over AZ on Wednesday & produce much warmer temperatures by the weekend. Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early season developmental stage for young cotton. First PHSs typically form on nodes 5 through 7 at ~700 heat units after planting. Split applications of nitrogen (N) fertilizer are recom- mended for cotton with initial applications often applied around PHS. For more on N management see http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1243.pdf AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 22, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 678 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 548 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********* 438 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ***** 246 -3 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15* 57 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 21 v = Heat Units on MAY 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 935; Last year = 818; Normal = 1003 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 71 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 This Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 55 31 118 ---- Normal 90 56 30 120 Recorded 80 47 30 71 0.00 2010 82 46 24 81 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 17% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .4" .4" .4" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A storm system will pass through the central Rockies early this week, resulting in windy, dry and slightly cooler conditions Monday & Tuesday. High pressure will develop over AZ by mid-week & produce very warm & above normal temperatures by week's end. The period from mid-May through late June is prime time for cotton development in much of AZ. It is important to avoid water stress at this time of year. Water stress reduces growth & leads to square abortion. For fields planted into moisture the first post-plant irrigation is often applied between 700 & 1200 heat units after planting (HUAP) with an optimum window at 800-1000 HUAP. For more details see publication at http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1204.pdf AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 29, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 3/15**************** 788 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 658 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15*********** 548 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ******* 356 -3 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15*** 167 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 28 v = Heat Units on MAY 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1045; Last year = 899; Normal = 1121 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 110 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 This Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 56 30 120 ---- Normal 94 58 28 130 Recorded 90 52 26 110 0.00 2010 95 55 23 129 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 26% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .6" .5" .5" .5" .5" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The cooler weekend weather will be short-lived. High pressure will develop over AZ this week, bringing a return to hot & dry conditions. Temperatures should run above normal through Wednesday, then cool back to normal levels late in the week. Winds will increase late in the week as a pair of storm systems pass through the central Rockies. Evaporative demand should run above normal this week. It is im- portant to avoid water stress at this time of year. Water stress reduces growth & leads to square abortion. The first post-plant irrigation for fields planted into moisture is typically applied between 700 & 1200 heat units after planting with an optimum window at 800-1000 heat units after planting. For more details see publication at http://cals.arizona.edu/pubs/crops/az1204.pdf AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 5, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 3/15****************** 887 -5 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 757 -6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************* 647 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********* 455 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15***** 266 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 4 v = Heat Units on MAY 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1144; Last year = 1028; Normal = 1252 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 98 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 This Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 94 58 28 130 ---- Normal 94 59 29 137 Recorded 87 50 15 98 0.00 2010 95 64 39 154 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 36% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .73" .53" .48" .48" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week. Expect sunny, hot & dry weather with moderate afternoon winds. Some moisture moved into far south- east AZ over the weekend, but this moisture is expected to dissipate early in the week without producing significant precipitation. Expect temperatures to run near normal this week. Early season developmental stages can be predicted using heat unit accumulation after planting (HUAP). First pinhead squares typically develop at ~700 HUAP; susceptible squares at ~900 HUAP; & first flowers at ~1200 HUAP. Closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress often leads to square abortion. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 12, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15******************** 1003 -6 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ***************** 873 -7 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/15*************** 763 -6 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 *********** 571 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******** 382 -4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 11 v = Heat Units on JUN 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1260; Last year = 1182; Normal = 1388 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days behind normal. HU last week = 116 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 This Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 94 59 29 137 ---- Normal 98 62 29 149 Recorded 92 53 22 116 0.00 2010 95 57 36 136 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 50% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .96" .75" .56" .51" .51" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will remain in place over AZ this week, resulting in sunny weather with hot days & mild evenings. Humidity will remain very low & winds will remain relatively light through mid-week. Expect higher winds late in the week as a storm system passes through the Great Basin. Closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to high evaporative demand & rapid canopy growth. Early season developmental stages can be predicted using heat unit accummulation after planting (HUAP). First pinhead squares typically develop at ~700 HUAP; suscept- ible squares at ~900 HUAP; & first flowers at ~1200 HUAP (see graph above). AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 19, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15*********************** 1149 -6 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/1 ******************** 1019 -7 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/15****************** 909 -6 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************** 717 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*********** 528 -4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 18 v = Heat Units on JUN 11; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1406; Last year = 1318; Normal = 1539 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 147 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 This Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 62 29 149 ---- Normal 101 64 32 163 Recorded 98 60 27 147 0.00 2010 100 61 22 150 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 67% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.29" 1.06" .86" .56" .56" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify this week & produce the hottest temperatures of the 2011 season (to date). Expect less wind, but continued high rates of water use due to high temperatures, low humidity and rapid canopy development. Some trop- ical moisture is forecast to move northward toward AZ late this week. However, forecasters don't expect any precipitation. Current 6-14 day forecasts show a bias toward below normal precipitation (through 3 July). Longer range forecasts for July through September indicate a strong bias for above normal temperatures. Monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress often leads to square abortion -- something to be avoided with a crop that is running behind normal. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 26, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | 3/15************************** 1317 -5 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1187 -6 days | | v | | | | | | 4/15********************** 1077 -5 days | v | | | | | | | 5/1 ****************** 885 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************** 696 -4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 25 v = Heat Units on JUN 18; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1574; Last year = 1468; Normal = 1701 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 168 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 This Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 64 32 163 ---- Normal 102 66 35 168 Recorded 103 65 30 168 0.00 2010 104 66 34 171 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.6" 1.37" 1.17" .82" .57" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Intense high pressure will dominate AZ weather early this week, producing hot temperatures & low humidity. A storm system will drop into the central Rockies mid-week & generate an uptick in winds & humidity with some slight cooling. Current forecasts indicate the humidity will mostly impact the eastern third of the state. While a brief period of lower humidity will follow this system, long range forecasts indicate monsoon circulation will develop by this weekend. It is unclear at this time whether the mid-week & weekend humidity will be sufficient to produce heat stress conditions in central & western production areas. Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 3, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15****************************** 1489 -5 days | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1359 -5 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/15************************* 1249 -4 days | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ********************* 1057 -4 days | v | | | | | | | 5/15***************** 868 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 2 v = Heat Units on JUN 25; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1746; Last year = 1639; Normal = 1869 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 171 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 This Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 66 35 168 ---- Normal 101 69 43 175 Recorded 106 66 34 171 0.00 2010 102 68 36 173 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.94" 1.7" 1.5" 1.15" .8" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Monsoon moisture surged into AZ late last week ending the very hot & dry early summer weather. Moisture was sufficient to generate afternoon & evening thunder- storms across much of the state. Heat stress developed in central & western pro- duction areas with L2 stress reported in Yuma Valley. Moisture will remain in place much of the week. Expect afternoon & evening thunderstorms & near normal temperatures through Thursday. The monsoon high is forecast to shift eastward later in the week & may allow western production areas to dry out this weekend. Temperatures will return to above normal with these drier conditions. Daily up- dates on heat stress at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 10, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | 3/15********************************* 1673 -5 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1543 -5 days | | | |v | | | | | 4/15***************************** 1433 -4 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ************************* 1241 -4 days | | v| | | | | | | 5/15********************* 1052 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 9 v = Heat Units on JUL 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1930; Last year = 1812; Normal = 2045 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 185 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 This Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 69 43 175 ---- Normal 100 69 47 177 Recorded 100 72 60 185 0.38 2010 106 77 50 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.96" 1.76" 1.58" 1.28" .97" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Isolated showers will continue early in the week across central and southern Arizona as a low pressure system moves through the area. This will also result in much cooler temperatures with afternoon highs only forecast to reach the mid-90s in central Arizona. Much drier air will move into the state by mid-week causing temperatures to increase back up to normal levels by the end of the week. This will also lessen the chance of precipitation by the weekend. The Colorado River area and western Arizona will remain mostly hot and dry throughout the week. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 17, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15************************************* 1846 -5 days | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ********************************** 1716 -5 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************** 1606 -4 days | | | |v | | | | | 5/1 **************************** 1414 -4 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************ 1225 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 16 v = Heat Units on JUL 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2103; Last year = 2014; Normal = 2222 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 173 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 This Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 69 47 177 ---- Normal 100 70 47 180 Recorded 97 68 41 173 0.00 2010 100 79 55 200 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.38" 2.16" 1.98" 1.65" 1.33" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Monsoon moisture has returned to much of AZ. Current forecasts indicate this moisture will remain in place through mid-week in central & western AZ, then be replaced by a much drier southwest flow by Thursday. Moisture will remain across southeast AZ for the entire week. For central & western production areas: expect near normal temperatures with scattered afternoon thunderstorms through mid-week, then hot & dry late in the week. For southeast production areas: expect near normal temperatures with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Heat stress (HS) was non-existent last week & total seasonal HS is running below normal. For HS updates go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 24, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15***************************************** 2037 -4 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************** 1907 -5 days | | | | |v | | | | 4/15************************************ 1797 -4 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ******************************** 1605 -4 days | | | |v | | | | | 5/15**************************** 1416 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 23 v = Heat Units on JUL 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2294; Last year = 2214; Normal = 2402 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 190 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 This Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 70 47 180 ---- Normal 102 71 50 182 Recorded 103 73 45 190 0.00 2010 97 77 60 193 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.6" 2.39" 2.21" 1.89" 1.59" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 Stress ns ns L1 ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High levels of humidity will remain in place early this week, providing a decent chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms through Tuesday. Drier southwest flow is expected by mid-week, resulting in warmer temperatures & less chance for precipitation Wednesday through Friday. Another influx of humidity is expected this weekend. Heat stress (HS) is running well below normal this growing season due to cooler temperatures & lower humidity. Growers can obtain daily updates on HS conditions via the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt). AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 31, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15********************************************* 2230 -4 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ****************************************** 2100 -4 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15**************************************** 1990 -3 days | | | | |v | | | | 5/1 ************************************ 1798 -3 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15******************************** 1609 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 30 v = Heat Units on JUL 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2487; Last year = 2407; Normal = 2584 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 193 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 This Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 71 50 182 ---- Normal 102 73 53 189 Recorded 101 75 55 193 0.11 2010 95 70 61 172 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.41" 2.41" 2.31" 2.02" 1.74" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 Stress L1 ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Warm, humid weather & the remnants of tropical storm Don should produced a good chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms through Tuesday. Drier air & hotter temperatures are forecast to move into AZ once TS Don departs. The drier air should lessen heat stress (HS) levels in lower elevation production areas which have experienced some L2 stress in recent days. Higher humidity & slightly cool- er temperatures are forecast to return by the weekend. HS updates are available at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. For more information on HS see: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/az1448.pdf. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 7, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************ 2417 -4 days | | | | | |v | | | 4/1 ********************************************** 2287 -4 days | | | | | v| | | | 4/15******************************************** 2177 -3 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 **************************************** 1985 -3 days | | | | |v | | | | 5/15************************************ 1796 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 6 v = Heat Units on JUL 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2674; Last year = 2579; Normal = 2774 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 188 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 This Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 73 53 189 ---- Normal 100 71 54 183 Recorded 103 72 53 189 0.25 2010 100 66 49 171 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.52" 2.52" 2.52" 2.41" 2.12" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 Stress ns ns L1 L1 L1 ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Hot & humid weather is on tap for much AZ this week. However, the flow regime may limit thunderstorm development to high elevation areas (mountains & south- east AZ). Dry, southwest flow associated with a trough off the Pacific coast may keep northwest production areas (Parker, Mohave) dry & stress free. Heat stress may be a problem in other low elevation production areas. A flow regime more conducive to thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop this weekend. Heat stress (HS) continues to run below normal levels for the growing season. HS updates are available at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 14, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15**************************************************** 2609 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************** 2479 -4 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2369 -3 days | | | | | v| | | | 5/1 ******************************************** 2177 -3 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15**************************************** 1988 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 13 v = Heat Units on AUG 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2866; Last year = 2750; Normal = 2956 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 191 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 This Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 71 54 183 ---- Normal 100 71 53 181 Recorded 100 74 52 191 0.26 2010 102 73 53 192 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.31" 2.31" 2.31" 2.31" 2.22" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 Stress ns L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Drier southwest flow is expected over central & western production areas during the first half of the week, resulting in warmer days, milder nights & little chance for precipitation. Monsoon flow will remain in place over southeast AZ throughout the week & will bring the chance for afternoon thunderstorms each day. This monsoon flow regime will push back into central & western production areas by Thursday, resulting in higher humidity & improved chances for precipitation. Expect temperatures to average above normal in all production areas this week. The long range forecast for the fall (Sep-Nov) indicates a bias toward above normal temperatures & near normal precipitation. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 21, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | 3/15******************************************************** 2802 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ***************************************************** 2672 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*************************************************** 2562 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *********************************************** 2370 -2 days | | | | | v| | | | 5/15******************************************** 2181 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 20 v = Heat Units on AUG 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3059; Last year = 2942; Normal = 3137 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 194 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 This Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 71 53 181 ---- Normal 98 71 54 176 Recorded 103 74 50 194 0.00 2010 99 73 60 189 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.5" 2.5" 2.5" 2.5" 2.5" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 Stress ns ns ns L1 ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will alter the flow regime this week, bringing a return to lower humidity & much hotter temperatures. The lower humidity will greatly reduce the chances for precipitation in all production areas. Longer term forecasts suggest the moist air will return for the weekend, reducing temperatures slightly while improving the chances for precipitation statewide. Long range forecasts for the fall (September - November) indicate a bias toward above normal temperatures & near normal precipitation. Heat units can be used to estimate the maturity dates late season bolls. See publication at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm for more details. AGUILA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2011 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15************************************************************ 2998 -2 days | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ********************************************************* 2868 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15******************************************************* 2758 -2 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *************************************************** 2566 -2 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************ 2377 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3255; Last year = 3131; Normal = 3313 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days behind normal. HU last week = 195 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 71 54 176 ---- Normal 97 69 54 175 Recorded 107 75 47 195 0.48 2010 99 64 46 158 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.35" 2.35" 2.35" 2.35" 2.35" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress ns ns ns L1 L1 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure system responsible for the recent very hot weather will weaken this week, bringing a return to more typical monsoon weather. Expect slightly cooler temperatures by mid-week with increasing humidity in southeast & central production areas. The higher humidity will improve the chances for thunderstorms in southeast & central AZ. Dry southwest flow will develop over western AZ & keep humidity & the chances for precipitation low along the Colorado River. This will be the final cotton advisory for the 2011 growing season. Have a safe and profitable harvest season !