Study Says Northern Arizona's Water Supplies Unsustainable

Alternative Supply Strategies Offered

by Joe Gelt

North-central Arizona's dilemma is the same confronting many other areas of the state: a growing population and limited water supplies. A recently released Bureau of Reclamation report both documents the extent of the water shortage and identifies possible solutions.

The report's results confirm what is generally believed in the region: that a serious future water shortage looms on the horizon. Factoring in population growth - according to Arizona Department of Economic Security figures, population in the area will double, from 96,125 in 2000 to 184,650 in 2050 - and present water use and supplies the report indicates that by 2050 the region’s groundwater pumping will not be sustainable and that unmet water demands will total about 7,000 acre feet.

The threat of water shortages, along with the onset of drought conditions, were on the minds of the region’s stakeholders when they requested Reclamation to conduct the study that was funded in October 2000. Although such appraisal studies are usually completed in two years, this one was in progress for five years to take advantage of ongoing and related studies.

In fact, it was the results of a 1998 Arizona Department of Water Resources report that added impetus that Reclamation undertake the appraisal study. The ADWR report concluded that a pipeline from Lake Powell was essential to supply water to the region. ADWR asked Reclamation to peer review the study; the federal agency recommended that alternatives be considered and raised concerns about the continued and future development of aquifers in the region. The present Reclamation study in a sense is a further response to the ADWR report.

In conducting the feasibility study Reclamation responded to the region’s stakeholders request to determine if adequate water supplies would be available to meet regional water demand projected to the year 2050. If supplies were found to be inadequate, Reclamation then was to identify a regional option or alternative to meet future demands. Finally, stakeholders wanted to determine whether an identified regional water supply plan would meet a federal objective. This would open the door to federal funding.

As part of the project, the federal study team examined the course of action communities in the region would likely pursue if a federal water supply project did not pan out. If left solely to their own devices, most would continue developing groundwater while intensifying water conservation and reuse efforts. Increased groundwater development, however, would likely be at a cost: seeps, springs and perennial reaches of some streams in the study area could be impacted.

Noting results of previous studies, the report states that continued development of the Coconino Aquifer and the Navajo Aquifer could result in portions of these aquifers becoming unsustainable within the next few decades. The Navajo and Hopi people rely on these aquifers for current and future supplies. Further development of the Redwall-Muav Aquifer could result in high-visibility notoriety by threatening spring flows below the south rim of the Grand Canyon. The Havasupai Tribe consider these springs “the life-blood of the earth and the Havasupai.”

After reviewing likely water supply strategies and finding them wanting for not likely meeting future water demands, the study team then worked out alternatives for increasing regional water supplies to meet future demands.

In the first alternative a pipeline would deliver Lake Powell water to the Navajo Nation and Hopi Tribe. Flagstaff would get its water from the C-Aquifer and Williams from the RM Aquifer. Water for the Grand Canyon and Tusayan would come from a Bright Angel Creek infiltration gallery located at Phantom Ranch in the Grand Canyon.

The second alternative is the same as the first except that Flagstaff also would receive Lake Powell water.
In alternative three, everyone gets Lake Powell water: the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, Flagstaff, Williams, the Grand Canyon and Tusayan.

Common to all the alternatives is the building of a pipeline, the key to all the strategies for bringing new water supplies into the region. The 1998 ADWR report also favored a pipeline in its strategy to import water into the region. What the Reclamation report does is not offer alternatives to the pipeline concept, but alternatives to the pipeline route recommended by the ADWR study.

The recent report is considered an appraisal study, a preliminary step along the way in securing federal support for a regional water supply strategy. It is now up to the Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Committee to work with its congressional delegation to get the federal government to conduct a feasibility study. This would provide a more in-depth look at the alternatives, including identifying environmental issues, reviewing design specifications and working out of cost estimates. Once a feasibility study is completed Congress then must approve the project and its funding.

The advisory committee knows that a federal project would be a down-the-road solution to a now pressing problem. Liz Archuleta, chair of the advisory committee and member of the Coconino County Board of Supervisors, says, “If we get congressional authority for a feasibility study we are talking about a study that will take quite a few years to complete. Then we would have to actually get funding for a pipeline. This is 20 or 30 years down the road.

“So we are trying to address (the issue) right now. We know there will be a shortage of water to meet our needs in 50 years, and we are trying to address the projected need. The pipeline is the really long-term solution; the shorter-term solution is going to have to be education and water conservation and legislation that promotes good land use planning.”

Conservation and water education, however, will likely get the region only so far in meeting its future water needs. What most agree is needed is a pipeline delivering a new water source into the region.
Archuleta is optimistic that the federal government will support such a project. She says, “I don’t see why not. Some people thought that the CAP would never be a reality.”

The Reclamation report titled, North Central Arizona Water Supply Study, is available at the agency's website: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/phoenix/.
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