Drought happens. Drought planning, however, is a deliberate process, mostly done at the local level in Arizona. The state does not have a statewide drought management plan, although a regional plan is in place in the Salt River Vall ey.

Some states have such plans. Helping to bridge the gap between climatology and policy, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) assists states in adopting drought management plans. The Center reports a growing number of states with drought pl ans, from three in 1982 to 27 in 1996. Another four states currently are in the process of developing plans.

The Center's statistics, however, may not be entirely accurate. Arizona is listed as one of the 27 states to have submitted a state drought management plan to the Center. (See NDMC map, p. 2, for the status of drought planning among states)

"According to our latest survey, we list Arizona with a plan," said Donald A. Wilhite, NDMC director. "However, plans come in all shapes and sizes, and it is sometimes difficult to decide if what exists is a plan or not."

The Arizona submission is not a state-wide plan. Tom Carr of the Arizona Department of Water Resources says, "As good planners we have reviewed the idea of a state drought plan, but there has not been a priority to put in place a standardized approa ch for the entire state. Most of our recent water management policies have focused on long-term overdraft of our aquifers."

Drought planning currently is done mostly at the local level in Arizona. The town of Williams, which relies on surface water supplies, adopted a drought management plan. At a much broader local level, the Central Arizona Water Conservation District , the Salt River Project, the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association worked together to develop a drought planning document for the Phoenix Active Management Area. The 1990 document defines drought and dro ught trigger points for the Salt-Verde River system and the Colorado River.

An underlying premise of drought management plans is that stress and loss from drought can be as much the result of management practices as climatic and hydrologic conditions. A drought management plan can help identify drought early and designate a ctions to mitigate adverse effects.

Arizona has not had the strong incentive to develop such a plan at the state level. Carr explains that, "In the past, drought in Arizona has mainly affected the agricultural community, and they dealt with it by reducing water allocations for certain sections of land and by relying on groundwater to supplement the surface water supplies."

Also, some officials believe that Arizona does not need an extensive drought management plan. They say the state is immune to the serious effects of drought because of its heavy reliance on groundwater. A document prepared by the Western States Wat er Council stated, "Drought is not a major problem in Arizona due to the State's primary dependence on groundwater reserves." In a state where many citizens now feel protective about groundwater, this sentiment may not be widely shared. And, besides, Ar izona's reliance on groundwater is lessening.

"We are moving toward a more surface-water-based system and economy as we use CAP water," said Carr. "Drought planning then becomes more important. We will find it is important to have backup capacity to take care of drought situations."

A state drought management plan would help Arizona cope with such situations. According to Wilhite the basic goal of these plans is to improve the effectiveness of state response efforts by enhancing monitoring and impact assessment, as well as prep aredness, response and recovery programs. These plans also are directed at improving coordination within state agencies and between state and federal government.

Various conditions in Arizona complicate any effort to develop a state drought management plan. For example, the state is divided into three water provinces — the plateau uplands, the basin and range lowlands and the central highlands — each with it s distinct geographic, geologic and climatic conditions. Precipitation varies from mountainous, forested areas to low-lying desert. A single drought management plan for all provinces would need to cover a lot of ground, both literally and figuratively.

New and changing conditions affecting Arizona, however, provide reasons for the state to adopt a state drought management plan. Arizona might be more vulnerable to the effects of drought and prolonged dry periods because of its expanding population. Population growth has resulted in an increased demand on its natural resources, especially water. Dry periods that at one time might have had negligible effects could now have more serious consequences on the state's population, wildlife and native veg etation.

Also, the effects of climatic change, an issue that is provoking debate and controversy, may need to be reckoned with. Will a greenhouse effect, caused by an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, influence global and regional climate, and how will t his potential change be manifested? Might Arizona experience more frequent and intense drought as a result? A state drought management plan could help Arizona prepare for such a possibility.

Further, now that new major water projects are unlikely to be built to develop and deliver additional water resources, more comprehensive water management planning is the preferred strategy. Statewide drought planning could be a component when compr ehensive water plans are developed. Present dry conditions may test Arizona's readiness to respond to drought and help determine whether additional drought planning is needed.