PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15****************************************************************** 3323 -6 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 **************************************************************** 3199 -4 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/15************************************************************* 3033 -4 days | | | | | | v | | 5/1 ********************************************************* 2835 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15**************************************************** 2618 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3685; Last year = 3927; Normal = 3902 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days behind normal. HU last week = 195 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 75 65 193 ---- Normal 102 73 64 187 Recorded 106 74 65 195 0.05 2004 104 73 52 191 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.74" 1.89" 2.05" 2.05" 2.05" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress ns L1 ns ns L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather for much of the week. Expect sunny and dry conditions through mid-week with very hot temperatures. High pressure will weaken and shift eastward during the last half of the week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, an increase in humidity and a chance for widely scattered thunder- storms in higher elevation areas. Growers considering top crops due to delayed planting dates and/or severe heat stress are encouraged to review the document on boll maturity dates located on the AZMET website at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm This will be the final advisory for the 2005 cotton season. AZMET will continue to provide heat stress advisories and general weather information on its website. Have a safe and profitable harvest season ! PALOMA APR 9, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ****************************** | ************* 605 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 1 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 6 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 2 - APR 8 This Week : APR 9 - APR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 48 37 73 ---- Normal 83 47 34 82 Recorded 81 47 40 78 0.00 2005 88 45 37 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.9 APR 4 ; Min = 61.2 APR 6 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A weak low pressure system will cross AZ on Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation in southeastern production areas. High pressure will rebuild over AZ on Tuesday and produce a rapid warming trend that will generate above normal temperatures through Friday. Another strong storm system is projected to impact AZ this weekend. The exact track of this storm is uncertain at this time, but current forecasts indicate the storm will produce high winds, much cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties as soon as possible as heat unit (HU) accumulation is approaching the 600-700 level in many production areas. Full season varieties typically perform better when planted before the annual HU accumulation exceeds 700. PALOMA APR 16, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *********************************** | **************** 696 ************** | *********************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 15 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 8 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 9 - APR 15 This Week : APR 16 - APR 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 47 34 82 ---- Normal 88 51 37 103 Recorded 85 50 41 91 0.00 2005 84 48 39 90 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 71.6 APR 14 ; Min = 64.6 APR 11 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Mostly sunny & warm this week with little chance of precipitation prior to the weekend. Expect a breezy day on Monday as a storm system passes to the north of AZ. Sunny & warm weather is then expected until the weekend. Forecast models indicate a storm system will develop off the southern CA coast late this week. However, it is too early to tell if this storm will generate anything beyond some cooling & an increase in winds. Overall, this looks to be a good week for plant- ing, but growers should monitor updated forecasts regarding the weekend storm. Growers are encouraged to plant medium maturity varieties once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700 (see above). PALOMA APR 23, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *************************************** | ****************** 784 **************** | *************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 22 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 15 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 16 - APR 22 This Week : APR 23 - APR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 88 51 37 103 ---- Normal 91 54 37 113 Recorded 85 47 36 88 0.00 2005 81 50 44 77 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 69.1 APR 21 ; Min = 65.1 APR 18 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of storm systems will pass north of the cotton production areas this week, bringing fluctuating temperatures and breezy conditions. Expect temp- eratures to average near normal for the week with peak temperatures occurring during the latter half of the work week. A storm system is expected to impact AZ again this weekend with windy weather and much cooler temperatures. Present forecasts indicate little chance for precipitation this week. Growers are encouraged to plant medium maturity varieties once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700 (see above). PALOMA APR 30, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ******************************************* | ******************** 855 ****************** | ******************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 29 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 22 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 23 - APR 29 This Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 91 54 37 113 ---- Normal 92 55 39 122 Recorded 80 46 42 71 0.01 2005 86 54 45 102 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68 APR 26 ; Min = 63.3 APR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect typical sunny & dry May weather. High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, bringing hot days & mild nights. Daytime temperatures should average well above normal while nights should cool to near normal levels due to very low humidity. No precipitation is expected this week. Growers still planting are encouraged to plant short or medium maturity varieties at this time. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 7, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************ 584 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********* 452 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15****** 283 -3 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 ** 85 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 6 v = Heat Units on APR 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 978; Last year = 922; Normal = 1099 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 124 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 This Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 55 39 122 ---- Normal 95 58 42 135 Recorded 94 54 39 124 0.00 2005 90 50 38 104 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 20% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .44" .44" .44" .44" .44" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify over AZ this week, producing sunny and dry weather with above normal temperatures. Expect temperatures to warm from near normal on Monday to nearly 10 degrees above normal by the weekend. The storm track has now shifted north of AZ, which should keeps winds in the light to moderate range. It appears we have entered the prime season for cotton growth & development, with little further chance for precipitation and cool weather. Growers are encouraged to take advantage of this period of optimal growing conditions. In recent years, above normal levels of heat stress have occurred following cool, choppy spring weather like we encountered in 2006. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 14, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 717 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************ 585 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15******** 416 -2 days |v | | | | | | | | 5/1 **** 218 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 13 v = Heat Units on MAY 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1111; Last year = 1026; Normal = 1234 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 133 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 This Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 58 42 135 ---- Normal 96 60 42 143 Recorded 97 56 45 133 0.00 2005 99 59 47 144 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 33% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .38" .38" .38" .38" .38" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Another warm and mostly dry week is expected. Sunny and hot weather is expected from Tucson and Phoenix west with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees above normal. Moist air is expected to move into southeast AZ Monday through Wednesday, bringing a slight chance for some unusual May thunderstorms. Present forecasts indicate the storms will be mostly confined to the mountains with little chance for significant precipitation in the valleys. High pressure will rebuild over AZ late in the week, bringing hot and dry weather to all production areas. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 21, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 3/15***************** 872 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 740 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15*********** 571 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ******* 373 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/15** 116 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 20 v = Heat Units on MAY 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1266; Last year = 1170; Normal = 1376 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 155 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 This Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 60 42 143 ---- Normal 97 61 43 146 Recorded 100 62 46 155 0.00 2005 100 64 55 166 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 51% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .6" .42" .42" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A strong, but dry storm system will pass over AZ Monday, generating high winds & much cooler temperatures by Monday night. The cool spell will be short lived as high pressure will redevelop over AZ by mid-week and bring a return to hot & dry conditions by late in the week. Expect temperatures to average about 3 degrees above normal this week with little chance for precipitation. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 28, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 3/15******************** 1004 -3 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ***************** 872 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************** 703 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********** 505 0 days |v | | | | | | | | 5/15***** 248 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 27 v = Heat Units on MAY 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1398; Last year = 1336; Normal = 1523 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 130 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 This Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 61 43 146 ---- Normal 101 62 42 157 Recorded 94 58 46 130 0.00 2005 95 61 51 145 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 66% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .84" .65" .45" .45" .45" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The weekend cool spell will be short lived. High pressure is expected to build over AZ by mid-week, bringing a return to hot & dry conditions during the latter half of the week. Expect temperatures to increase rapidly this week & run well above normal by the end of the week. Present forecasts indicate that moisture may seep into far southeast AZ late in the week and generate a few scattered high elevation thunderstorms. The rest of the state should remain dry. Expect temperatures to average 3-5 degrees above normal this week. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 4, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15*********************** 1140 -4 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/1 ******************** 1008 -2 days | v | | | | | | | 4/15***************** 839 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************* 641 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******** 384 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 3 v = Heat Units on MAY 27; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1534; Last year = 1481; Normal = 1679 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 135 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 This Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 62 42 157 ---- Normal 100 62 42 152 Recorded 99 56 44 135 0.00 2005 95 61 47 143 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 79% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .93" .76" .54" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Another very hot week! High pressure will continue to influence AZ weather this week, bringing very hot days & warm nights. The high is expected to shift east- ward into Texas by mid-week and produce southeasterly wind flow across much of the state for a few days. Moisture levels will increase with this southeasterly flow and there is a chance for widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the state on Wednesday & Thursday. Most of the precipitation will be in the higher elevation areas, but some valley rain is possible. Dry, southwesterly flow will redevelop by the weekend & bring a return to hot & dry weather by the weekend. Temperatures should average 5-7 degrees above normal this week. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 11, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | 3/15************************** 1317 -3 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1185 -1 day | | v| | | | | | | 4/15******************** 1016 -2 days | v| | | | | | | | 5/1 **************** 818 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*********** 561 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 10 v = Heat Units on JUN 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1711; Last year = 1624; Normal = 1830 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 177 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 This Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 62 42 152 ---- Normal 103 63 43 162 Recorded 103 68 53 177 0.00 2005 100 63 50 158 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 90% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.39" 1.18" .91" .6" .49" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather during the first half of the week & bring the season's hottest temperatures on Tuesday & Wednesday. Temperatures will exceed 110F in most central & western production areas & climb above 100F in the higher elevation production areas of southeast AZ. Humidity will remain very low & skies will remain mostly clear during this period. Winds may be a problem along the Colorado River early in the week as a dry trough of low pressure moves toward AZ. Passage of this trough mid-week will produce some breezes but little in the way of precipitation. Temperatures will moderate to normal levels late in the week with the passage of this trough. The cotton crop should be developing quickly at this time of year with the recent heat. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture levels & avoid water stress during this optimal time for cotton growth & development. Temperatures should average about 3-5 degrees above normal this week. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 18, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15***************************** 1470 -3 days | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1338 -1 day | | | v | | | | | | 4/15*********************** 1169 -2 days | | v | | | | | | | 5/1 ******************* 971 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************** 714 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 17 v = Heat Units on JUN 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1864; Last year = 1782; Normal = 1991 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 154 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 This Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 103 63 43 162 ---- Normal 106 69 48 180 Recorded 102 61 47 154 0.00 2005 109 70 54 185 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 95% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.65" 1.44" 1.17" .86" .5" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Typical hot & dry weather will continue across AZ this week. High pressure will dominate AZ weather, producing clear skies, low humidity & hot temperatures. A disturbance in the Great Basin will generate some windy conditions early in the week & cool temperatures a few degrees later in the week. This is clearly the "prime time" for cotton production in AZ, so it is very important to monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Assuming the 2006 growing season rolls out on schedule, the monsoon & its potential to generate heat stress & reduced fruit retention is just a couple of weeks away. A few thoughts on the monsoon. In recent years, the monsoon has arrived on sched- ule following a cool, "choppy" spring like we encountered in 2006. However, the recent passage of a Pacific storm system and the current trough passing through the Great Basin indicate the atmosphere remains in a late spring pattern which could delay the monsoon. A weak or delayed monsoon equates to less heat stress and higher yields in low elevation production areas. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 25, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15********************************* 1651 -3 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ****************************** 1519 -1 day | | | v| | | | | | 4/15*************************** 1350 -2 days | | |v | | | | | | 5/1 *********************** 1152 0 days | v | | | | | | | 5/15****************** 895 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 24 v = Heat Units on JUN 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2045; Last year = 1967; Normal = 2170 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 180 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 This Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 69 48 180 ---- Normal 107 70 52 183 Recorded 107 69 57 180 0.00 2005 104 66 49 170 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.8" 1.61" 1.35" 1.06" .68" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure centered over the Great Basin will continue to steer moisture into AZ during much of the week. Expect above normal humidity levels for this time of year with a chance for afternoon thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the week. Forecast models indicate this high will be squeezed back over AZ late in the week which may shut off the moisture and bring a return to hot, dry weather. Temperatures should average near normal this week. Note! Heat stress indicies indicate we reached Level 1 heat stress at selected locations this past week. Given the current forecast, we may see some additional Level 1 days this week. Level 1 stress can produce light to moderate fruit loss. Fortunately, fruit retention usually improves shortly after the Level 1 stress conditions end. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 2, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15************************************* 1847 -2 days | | | | v| | | | | 4/1 ********************************** 1715 -1 day | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************* 1546 -1 day | | | v| | | | | | 5/1 *************************** 1348 +1 day | | v | | | | | | 5/15********************** 1091 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 1 v = Heat Units on JUN 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2241; Last year = 2137; Normal = 2354 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 197 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 This Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 70 52 183 ---- Normal 105 72 58 189 Recorded 106 75 63 197 0.06 2005 106 68 52 178 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.13" 1.93" 1.67" 1.37" .98" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 Stress L1 L1 ns L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure located north of Arizona will continue to push moisture into AZ this week. Humidity levels will continue well above normal for this time of year & temperatures will run close to normal. Afternoon & evening thunderstorms will develop each day in higher elevation areas & migrate over the deserts, bringing scattered precipitation to many production areas. Heat stress may continue to be a problem in most low elevation areas. To date, the bulk of the heat stress has been categorized as Level 1 which generates light to moderate fruit loss. Fruit retention should return to high levels once Level 1 stress conditions disappear. There is a slight chance that the high directing moisture into Arizona will sink southward late in the week which could cut off the flow of moisture and reduce or eliminate problems with heat stress. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 9, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15***************************************** 2040 -2 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************** 1908 0 days | | | | v | | | | 4/15*********************************** 1739 -1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ******************************* 1541 +1 day | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************** 1284 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 8 v = Heat Units on JUL 1; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2434; Last year = 2315; Normal = 2542 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 193 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 This Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 72 58 189 ---- Normal 106 73 59 191 Recorded 100 75 65 193 0.75 2005 108 72 58 191 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2" 1.84" 1.62" 1.38" 1.05" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 Stress L1 L1 L1 ns L1 ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure has moved south over AZ & will cut off much of the moisture that produced monsoon conditions the past two weeks. Expect mostly sunny skies, lower humidity & warmer daytime temperatures during the first half of the week. Nights should be much cooler with the clearer skies & lower humidity. It is likely most of the state will be free of heat stress problems during this break in the monsoon. Forecast models indicate the humidity will return by Friday of this week, but the "human forecasters" believe an earlier return (perhaps Wednesday) is possible. Temperatures should average slightly above normal this week. The bulk of the heat stress to date has been categorized as Level 1 which produces light to moderate fruit loss. Fruit retention should return to high levels once Level 1 stress conditions disappear (e.g., early this week). PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 16, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15********************************************* 2241 -2 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ****************************************** 2109 0 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15*************************************** 1940 -1 day | | | | v | | | | 5/1 *********************************** 1742 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 5/15****************************** 1485 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 15 v = Heat Units on JUL 8; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2635; Last year = 2506; Normal = 2733 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 202 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 This Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 73 59 191 ---- Normal 105 73 59 190 Recorded 110 77 66 202 0.03 2005 108 79 65 207 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.42" 2.42" 2.24" 1.95" 1.56" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Stress L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L1 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure ridge responsible for steering moist air into AZ has once again moved into the Four Corners region which is a favorable location for active monsoon weather. Expect hot & humid weather this week with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Both temperatures & dew points should average slightly above normal which will lead to problems with heat stress in low desert production areas. Level 2 heat stress developed in central & western Arizona late last week. Level 2 stress usually produces heavy fruit loss which continues until the stress is alleviated. Level 2 stress also damages young squares that are about 2 weeks from blooming. These squares will develop into flowers, but the flowers are usually infertile & the resulting bolls abort 3-5 days after bloom. Growers should therefore expect to see immediate as well as delayed (14 days later) fruit loss as a result of Level 2 stress. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 23, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************* 2445 -1 day | | | | | |v | | | 4/1 ********************************************** 2313 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 4/15******************************************* 2144 0 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 *************************************** 1946 +2 days | | | | v| | | | | 5/15********************************** 1689 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 22 v = Heat Units on JUL 15; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2839; Last year = 2713; Normal = 2923 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days behind normal. HU last week = 204 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 This Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 73 59 190 ---- Normal 107 75 61 195 Recorded 110 78 66 204 0.00 2005 104 77 69 201 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.37" 2.37" 2.37" 2.21" 1.83" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 Stress L1 L1 L2 L1 L1 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect more hot and humid weather this week with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. The extremely high temperatures will continue early in the week. By mid-week, temperatures could drop below 100 and the chance for thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week. Both temperatures & dew points will probably average slightly above normal which could lead to problems with heat stress in low desert production areas. Level 2 heat stress persisted in central & western Arizona last week. Level 2 stress usually produces heavy fruit loss which continues until the stress is alleviated. Level 2 stress also damages young squares that are about 2 weeks from blooming. These squares will develop into flowers, but the flowers are usually infertile & the resulting bolls abort 3-5 days after bloom. Growers should therefore expect to see immediate as well as delayed (14 days later) fruit loss as a result of Level 2 stress. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 30, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15***************************************************** 2647 -1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************** 2515 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2346 0 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ******************************************* 2148 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15************************************** 1891 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 29 v = Heat Units on JUL 22; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3041; Last year = 2914; Normal = 3117 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days behind normal. HU last week = 203 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 This Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 75 61 195 ---- Normal 108 76 63 200 Recorded 105 77 68 203 0.08 2005 102 75 69 197 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.46" 2.46" 2.46" 2.46" 2.21" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 Stress L2 L2 L2 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The stagnant low pressure system that has produced the cooler, humid conditions statewide & the heavy rains in southeast & central AZ is expected to exit the area on Tuesday. Drier southwest flow will replace this low & bring a return to warmer temperatures & a greatly reduced chance for precipitation. It is uncertain whether this new air mass will be sufficiently dry to eliminate heat stress which has been prevalent at most low elevation areas for several weeks. Normally, early August is the most difficult time for heat stress in AZ. A break in heat stress would certainly be unusual, but perhaps fitting given the unusual nature of the 2006 production season. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 6, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15********************************************************* 2842 -1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ****************************************************** 2710 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*************************************************** 2541 0 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *********************************************** 2343 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15****************************************** 2086 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 5 v = Heat Units on JUL 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3236; Last year = 3111; Normal = 3317 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days behind normal. HU last week = 194 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 This Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 76 63 200 ---- Normal 106 76 64 197 Recorded 100 75 62 194 0.00 2005 99 75 70 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 Stress L1 L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Last week's stretch of cooler and less humid weather is projected to end this week. Forecasters expect near normal temperatures this week with a return to more humid conditions by mid-week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will accompany the return of the monsoon. Another drying trend is expected by the coming weekend, particularly in the western part of the state. Last week's cooler and drier weather put a stop to heat stress conditions in the low desert production areas. July proved to be a difficult month for heat stress, but the current week-long respite should result in improved fruit retention in many areas. Areas subjected to extended periods of Level 2 heat stress (e.g., Colorado River) may still be seeing the delayed effects of Level 2 stress. Level 2 stress often damages young squares, and these squares typically develop into infertile flowers. This delayed fruit loss should end about 14 days after the last Level 2 heat stress day which is 27 July in most locations. PALOMA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 13, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15************************************************************* 3038 -1 day | | | | | | |v | | 4/1 ********************************************************** 2906 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/15******************************************************* 2737 0 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *************************************************** 2539 +2 days | | | | | |v | | | 5/15********************************************** 2282 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 12 v = Heat Units on AUG 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3432; Last year = 3304; Normal = 3514 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days behind normal. HU last week = 197 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 This Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 76 64 197 ---- Normal 106 74 64 195 Recorded 104 75 67 197 0.30 2005 102 72 65 185 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.14" 2.14" 2.14" 2.14" 2.14" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 Stress ns ns L1 L1 ns L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A slow drying trend is expected across central & western AZ this week as southwest flow redevelops over the region. Expect near normal temperatures with a low grade monsoon condition which means a chance for isolated thunderstorms each day. Long range models suggest another surge of moisture will enter this region by the weekend. The southwest flow & associated drying trend is not expected to impact southeast AZ which means more of the same -- humid conditions with near normal temperatures & afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Heat stress was generally light last week as cooler temperatures & drier air combined to keep crop canopies below the Level 2 stress category in most locations. Growers should be seeing improved fruit retention in crops that have not reached cut-out. Heat stress information is available daily at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm