ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | 3740| | | | | | | | | v | 2/1 **************************************************************************0 days | | | | | | | | v3672 | 2/15************************************************************************* 0 days | | | | | | | | v 3582 | 3/1 ************************************************************************ 0 days | | | | | | | v 3447 | 3/15********************************************************************* -1 day | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ****************************************************************** 3294 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3897; Last year = 4037 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 1 day behind normal. HU last week = 198 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 75 62 197 ---- Normal 103 74 62 190 Recorded 110 76 64 198 0.00 2004 108 72 53 189 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.41" 1.5" 1.61" 1.79" 1.98" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather for much of the week. Expect sunny and dry conditions through mid-week with very hot temperatures. High pressure will weaken and shift eastward during the last half of the week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, an increase in humidity and a chance for widely scattered thunder- storms in higher elevation areas. Growers considering top crops due to delayed planting dates and/or severe heat stress are encouraged to review the document on boll maturity dates located on the AZMET website at http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm This will be the final advisory for the 2005 cotton season. AZMET will continue to provide heat stress advisories and general weather information on its website. Have a safe and profitable harvest season ! ROLL APR 9, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************************************ | **************** 722 *************** | ************************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 1 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 2 - APR 8 This Week : APR 9 - APR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 78 46 36 61 ---- Normal 83 46 32 78 Recorded 84 48 38 88 0.00 2005 90 46 39 96 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68 APR 4 ; Min = 61.7 APR 2 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A weak low pressure system will cross AZ on Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation in southeastern production areas. High pressure will rebuild over AZ on Tuesday and produce a rapid warming trend that will generate above normal temperatures through Friday. Another strong storm system is projected to impact AZ this weekend. The exact track of this storm is uncertain at this time, but current forecasts indicate the storm will produce high winds, much cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties as soon as possible as heat unit (HU) accumulation is approaching the 600-700 level in many production areas. Full season varieties typically perform better when planted before the annual HU accumulation exceeds 700. ROLL APR 16, 2006 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ***************************************** | ****************** 826 ****************** | ***************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 15 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 8 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 9 - APR 15 This Week : APR 16 - APR 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 46 32 78 ---- Normal 90 52 37 109 Recorded 90 50 37 104 0.00 2005 86 48 40 94 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72.1 APR 14 ; Min = 64.9 APR 9 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Mostly sunny & warm this week with little chance of precipitation prior to the weekend. Expect a breezy day on Monday as a storm system passes to the north of AZ. Sunny & warm weather is then expected until the weekend. Forecast models indicate a storm system will develop off the southern CA coast late this week. However, it is too early to tell if this storm will generate anything beyond some cooling & an increase in winds. Overall, this looks to be a good week for plant- ing, but growers should monitor updated forecasts regarding the weekend storm. Growers are encouraged to plant medium maturity varieties once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700 (see above). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 23, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | | 2/1 *************** 749 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************ 621 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 *********** 531 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15********* 450 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ****** 290 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 22 v = Heat Units on APR 15; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 925; Last year = 880 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 98 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 16 - APR 22 This Week : APR 23 - APR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 52 37 109 ---- Normal 92 53 37 111 Recorded 88 49 30 98 0.00 2005 82 52 46 89 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 17% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .42" .39" .39" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of storm systems will pass north of the cotton production areas this week, bringing fluctuating temperatures and breezy conditions. Expect temp- eratures to average near normal for the week with peak temperatures occurring during the latter half of the work week. A storm system is expected to impact AZ again this weekend with windy weather and much cooler temperatures. Present forecasts indicate little chance for precipitation this week. Growers are encouraged to plant medium maturity varieties once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700 (see above). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 30, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | | 2/1 ***************** 833 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************** 705 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************ 615 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15*********** 534 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ******* 374 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 29 v = Heat Units on APR 22; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1009; Last year = 969 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 1 day ahead of normal. HU last week = 82 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 23 - APR 29 This Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 53 37 111 ---- Normal 94 55 38 122 Recorded 83 49 40 82 0.01 2005 88 55 47 112 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 23% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .48" .35" .35" .35" .35" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect typical sunny & dry May weather. High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, bringing hot days & mild nights. Daytime temperatures should average well above normal while nights should cool to near normal levels due to very low humidity. No precipitation is expected this week. Growers still planting are encouraged to plant short or medium maturity varieties at this time. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 7, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 2/1 ******************* 959 +1 day | v | | | | | | | 2/15***************** 831 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 *************** 741 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************* 660 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 500 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 6 v = Heat Units on APR 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1135; Last year = 1081 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 1 day ahead of normal. HU last week = 125 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 This Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 94 55 38 122 ---- Normal 95 58 41 134 Recorded 96 54 37 125 0.01 2005 91 52 42 111 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 35% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .77" .58" .45" .44" .44" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will intensify over AZ this week, producing sunny and dry weather with above normal temperatures. Expect temperatures to warm from near normal on Monday to nearly 10 degrees above normal by the weekend. The storm track has now shifted north of AZ, which should keeps winds in the light to moderate range. It appears we have entered the prime season for cotton growth & development, with little further chance for precipitation and cool weather. Growers are encouraged to take advantage of this period of optimal growing conditions. In recent years, above normal levels of heat stress have occurred following cool, choppy spring weather like we encountered in 2006. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 14, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 2/1 ********************** 1102 +1 day | | v| | | | | | | 2/15******************* 974 -2 days | |v | | | | | | | 3/1 ****************** 884 -2 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/15**************** 803 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 643 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 13 v = Heat Units on MAY 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1278; Last year = 1192 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 1 day ahead of normal. HU last week = 141 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 This Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 58 41 134 ---- Normal 97 59 42 140 Recorded 100 58 38 141 0.00 2005 100 61 46 150 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 52% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .94" .76" .63" .52" .43" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Another warm and mostly dry week is expected. Sunny and hot weather is expected from Tucson and Phoenix west with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees above normal. Moist air is expected to move into southeast AZ Monday through Wednesday, bringing a slight chance for some unusual May thunderstorms. Present forecasts indicate the storms will be mostly confined to the mountains with little chance for significant precipitation in the valleys. High pressure will rebuild over AZ late in the week, bringing hot and dry weather to all production areas. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 21, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 ************************* 1263 +2 days | | |v | | | | | | 2/15*********************** 1135 0 days | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ********************* 1045 -1 day | | v | | | | | | | 3/15******************* 964 +1 day | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 **************** 804 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 20 v = Heat Units on MAY 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1439; Last year = 1342 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 161 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 This Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 59 42 140 ---- Normal 99 60 45 148 Recorded 104 63 39 161 0.00 2005 104 68 53 176 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 70% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.2" 1.02" .89" .77" .54" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A strong, but dry storm system will pass over AZ Monday, generating high winds & much cooler temperatures by Monday night. The cool spell will be short lived as high pressure will redevelop over AZ by mid-week and bring a return to hot & dry conditions by late in the week. Expect temperatures to average about 3 degrees above normal this week with little chance for precipitation. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 28, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 2/1 **************************** 1405 +2 days | | | v| | | | | | 2/15************************** 1277 -1 day | | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ************************ 1187 -1 day | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************** 1106 +1 day | | v | | | | | | | 4/1 ******************* 946 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 27 v = Heat Units on MAY 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1581; Last year = 1518 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 142 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 This Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 60 45 148 ---- Normal 100 61 44 151 Recorded 96 60 44 142 0.02 2005 99 63 50 155 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 82% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.47" 1.28" 1.14" 1.02" .78" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The weekend cool spell will be short lived. High pressure is expected to build over AZ by mid-week, bringing a return to hot & dry conditions during the latter half of the week. Expect temperatures to increase rapidly this week & run well above normal by the end of the week. Present forecasts indicate that moisture may seep into far southeast AZ late in the week and generate a few scattered high elevation thunderstorms. The rest of the state should remain dry. Expect temperatures to average 3-5 degrees above normal this week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 4, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 2/1 ******************************* 1547 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 2/15**************************** 1419 -1 day | | | v | | | | | 3/1 *************************** 1329 -2 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************* 1248 0 days | | |v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************** 1088 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 3 v = Heat Units on MAY 27; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1723; Last year = 1673 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 141 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 This Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 61 44 151 ---- Normal 98 60 45 145 Recorded 103 57 39 141 0.00 2005 97 59 47 145 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 90% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.51" 1.34" 1.22" 1.11" .89" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Another very hot week! High pressure will continue to influence AZ weather this week, bringing very hot days & warm nights. The high is expected to shift east- ward into Texas by mid-week and produce southeasterly wind flow across much of the state for a few days. Moisture levels will increase with this southeasterly flow and there is a chance for widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the state on Wednesday & Thursday. Most of the precipitation will be in the higher elevation areas, but some valley rain is possible. Dry, southwesterly flow will redevelop by the weekend & bring a return to hot & dry weather by the weekend. Temperatures should average 5-7 degrees above normal this week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 11, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 *********************************** 1726 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 2/15******************************** 1598 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ****************************** 1508 0 days | | | |v | | | | | 3/15***************************** 1427 +2 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************* 1267 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 10 v = Heat Units on JUN 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1902; Last year = 1818 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 181 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 This Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 60 45 145 ---- Normal 101 63 48 158 Recorded 106 68 51 181 0.00 2005 104 63 52 159 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 96% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.87" 1.68" 1.55" 1.43" 1.2" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather during the first half of the week & bring the season's hottest temperatures on Tuesday & Wednesday. Temperatures will exceed 110F in most central & western production areas & climb above 100F in the higher elevation production areas of southeast AZ. Humidity will remain very low & skies will remain mostly clear during this period. Winds may be a problem along the Colorado River early in the week as a dry trough of low pressure moves toward AZ. Passage of this trough mid-week will produce some breezes but little in the way of precipitation. Temperatures will moderate to normal levels late in the week with the passage of this trough. The cotton crop should be developing quickly at this time of year with the recent heat. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture levels & avoid water stress during this optimal time for cotton growth & development. Temperatures should average about 3-5 degrees above normal this week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 18, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 ************************************** 1887 +3 days | | | | |v | | | | 2/15*********************************** 1759 +1 day | | | | v| | | | | 3/1 ********************************* 1669 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************** 1588 +2 days | | | |v | | | | | 4/1 ***************************** 1428 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 17 v = Heat Units on JUN 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2063; Last year = 1977 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 161 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 This Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 63 48 158 ---- Normal 105 68 51 175 Recorded 105 63 45 161 0.00 2005 111 70 54 185 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.25" 2.05" 1.92" 1.79" 1.54" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Typical hot & dry weather will continue across AZ this week. High pressure will dominate AZ weather, producing clear skies, low humidity & hot temperatures. A disturbance in the Great Basin will generate some windy conditions early in the week & cool temperatures a few degrees later in the week. This is clearly the "prime time" for cotton production in AZ, so it is very important to monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Assuming the 2006 growing season rolls out on schedule, the monsoon & its potential to generate heat stress & reduced fruit retention is just a couple of weeks away. A few thoughts on the monsoon. In recent years, the monsoon has arrived on sched- ule following a cool, "choppy" spring like we encountered in 2006. However, the recent passage of a Pacific storm system and the current trough passing through the Great Basin indicate the atmosphere remains in a late spring pattern which could delay the monsoon. A weak or delayed monsoon equates to less heat stress and higher yields in low elevation production areas. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 25, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 ***************************************** 2071 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15*************************************** 1943 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ************************************* 1853 +1 day | | | | |v | | | | 3/15*********************************** 1772 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************** 1612 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 24 v = Heat Units on JUN 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2247; Last year = 2162 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 184 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 This Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 68 51 175 ---- Normal 107 69 52 180 Recorded 107 70 55 184 0.00 2005 109 63 45 166 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.3" 2.15" 2.02" 1.9" 1.68" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure centered over the Great Basin will continue to steer moisture into AZ during much of the week. Expect above normal humidity levels for this time of year with a chance for afternoon thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the week. Forecast models indicate this high will be squeezed back over AZ late in the week which may shut off the moisture and bring a return to hot, dry weather. Temperatures should average near normal this week. Note! Heat stress indicies indicate we reached Level 1 heat stress at selected locations this past week. Given the current forecast, we may see some additional Level 1 days this week. Level 1 stress can produce light to moderate fruit loss. Fortunately, fruit retention usually improves shortly after the Level 1 stress conditions end. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 2, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ********************************************* 2271 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15******************************************* 2143 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ***************************************** 2053 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*************************************** 1972 +3 days | | | | |v | | | | 4/1 ************************************ 1812 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 1 v = Heat Units on JUN 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2447; Last year = 2328 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 201 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 This Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 69 52 180 ---- Normal 104 72 59 186 Recorded 106 76 66 201 0.57 2005 111 66 50 177 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.35" 2.35" 2.35" 2.23" 1.99" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure located north of Arizona will continue to push moisture into AZ this week. Humidity levels will continue well above normal for this time of year & temperatures will run close to normal. Afternoon & evening thunderstorms will develop each day in higher elevation areas & migrate over the deserts, bringing scattered precipitation to many production areas. Heat stress may continue to be a problem in most low elevation areas. To date, the bulk of the heat stress has been categorized as Level 1 which generates light to moderate fruit loss. Fruit retention should return to high levels once Level 1 stress conditions disappear. There is a slight chance that the high directing moisture into Arizona will sink southward late in the week which could cut off the flow of moisture and reduce or eliminate problems with heat stress. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 9, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ************************************************* 2466 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15*********************************************** 2338 +2 days | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ********************************************* 2248 +2 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/15******************************************* 2167 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 **************************************** 2007 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 8 v = Heat Units on JUL 1; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2642; Last year = 2505 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 195 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 This Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 72 59 186 ---- Normal 107 72 57 187 Recorded 103 75 66 195 0.02 2005 113 72 56 189 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.93" 1.93" 1.93" 1.93" 1.87" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure has moved south over AZ & will cut off much of the moisture that produced monsoon conditions the past two weeks. Expect mostly sunny skies, lower humidity & warmer daytime temperatures during the first half of the week. Nights should be much cooler with the clearer skies & lower humidity. It is likely most of the state will be free of heat stress problems during this break in the monsoon. Forecast models indicate the humidity will return by Friday of this week, but the "human forecasters" believe an earlier return (perhaps Wednesday) is possible. Temperatures should average slightly above normal this week. The bulk of the heat stress to date has been categorized as Level 1 which produces light to moderate fruit loss. Fruit retention should return to high levels once Level 1 stress conditions disappear (e.g., early this week). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 16, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ***************************************************** 2668 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15*************************************************** 2540 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ************************************************* 2450 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*********************************************** 2369 +4 days | | | | | v| | | | 4/1 ******************************************** 2209 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 15 v = Heat Units on JUL 8; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2844; Last year = 2694 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 201 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 This Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 72 57 187 ---- Normal 106 73 60 190 Recorded 112 77 64 201 0.03 2005 111 81 65 211 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.47" 2.47" 2.47" 2.47" 2.47" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Stress L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure ridge responsible for steering moist air into AZ has once again moved into the Four Corners region which is a favorable location for active monsoon weather. Expect hot & humid weather this week with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Both temperatures & dew points should average slightly above normal which will lead to problems with heat stress in low desert production areas. Level 2 heat stress developed in central & western Arizona late last week. Level 2 stress usually produces heavy fruit loss which continues until the stress is alleviated. Level 2 stress also damages young squares that are about 2 weeks from blooming. These squares will develop into flowers, but the flowers are usually infertile & the resulting bolls abort 3-5 days after bloom. Growers should therefore expect to see immediate as well as delayed (14 days later) fruit loss as a result of Level 2 stress. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 23, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 ********************************************************** 2875 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15******************************************************* 2747 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ***************************************************** 2657 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15**************************************************** 2576 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************ 2416 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 22 v = Heat Units on JUL 15; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3051; Last year = 2905 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 206 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 This Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 73 60 190 ---- Normal 106 74 61 193 Recorded 111 79 68 206 0.13 2005 108 79 71 204 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" 2.33" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 Stress L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect more hot and humid weather this week with a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. The extremely high temperatures will continue early in the week. By mid-week, temperatures could drop below 100 and the chance for thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week. Both temperatures & dew points will probably average slightly above normal which could lead to problems with heat stress in low desert production areas. Level 2 heat stress persisted in central & western Arizona last week. Level 2 stress usually produces heavy fruit loss which continues until the stress is alleviated. Level 2 stress also damages young squares that are about 2 weeks from blooming. These squares will develop into flowers, but the flowers are usually infertile & the resulting bolls abort 3-5 days after bloom. Growers should therefore expect to see immediate as well as delayed (14 days later) fruit loss as a result of Level 2 stress. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 30, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 ************************************************************** 3084 +6 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15*********************************************************** 2956 +4 days | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ********************************************************* 2866 +4 days | | | | | | v| | | 3/15******************************************************** 2785 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 **************************************************** 2625 +7 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 29 v = Heat Units on JUL 22; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3260; Last year = 3109 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 209 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 This Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 74 61 193 ---- Normal 108 76 61 200 Recorded 105 80 70 209 0.03 2005 106 77 71 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.17" 2.2" 2.2" 2.2" 2.2" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 Stress L2 L2 L2 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The stagnant low pressure system that has produced the cooler, humid conditions statewide & the heavy rains in southeast & central AZ is expected to exit the area on Tuesday. Drier southwest flow will replace this low & bring a return to warmer temperatures & a greatly reduced chance for precipitation. It is uncertain whether this new air mass will be sufficiently dry to eliminate heat stress which has been prevalent at most low elevation areas for several weeks. Normally, early August is the most difficult time for heat stress in AZ. A break in heat stress would certainly be unusual, but perhaps fitting given the unusual nature of the 2006 production season. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 6, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 ***************************************************************** 3273 +5 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15*************************************************************** 3145 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ************************************************************* 3055 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*********************************************************** 2974 +5 days | | | | | | v| | | 4/1 ******************************************************** 2814 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 5 v = Heat Units on JUL 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3449; Last year = 3311 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 189 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 This Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 76 61 200 ---- Normal 105 75 61 195 Recorded 101 73 64 189 0.00 2005 100 75 72 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.88" 2.03" 2.14" 2.14" 2.14" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 Stress L1 L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Last week's stretch of cooler and less humid weather is projected to end this week. Forecasters expect near normal temperatures this week with a return to more humid conditions by mid-week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will accompany the return of the monsoon. Another drying trend is expected by the coming weekend, particularly in the western part of the state. Last week's cooler and drier weather put a stop to heat stress conditions in the low desert production areas. July proved to be a difficult month for heat stress, but the current week-long respite should result in improved fruit retention in many areas. Areas subjected to extended periods of Level 2 heat stress (e.g., Colorado River) may still be seeing the delayed effects of Level 2 stress. Level 2 stress often damages young squares, and these squares typically develop into infertile flowers. This delayed fruit loss should end about 14 days after the last Level 2 heat stress day which is 27 July in most locations. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 13, 2006 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v 3472 | 2/1 ********************************************************************* +5 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15******************************************************************* 3344 +4 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ***************************************************************** 3254 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*************************************************************** 3173 +5 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ************************************************************ 3013 +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 12 v = Heat Units on AUG 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3648; Last year = 3505 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 198 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 This Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 75 61 195 ---- Normal 106 77 64 201 Recorded 108 76 66 198 0.01 2005 106 73 63 190 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.64" 1.8" 1.9" 2" 2.14" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 Stress ns ns L1 L2 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A slow drying trend is expected across central & western AZ this week as southwest flow redevelops over the region. Expect near normal temperatures with a low grade monsoon condition which means a chance for isolated thunderstorms each day. Long range models suggest another surge of moisture will enter this region by the weekend. The southwest flow & associated drying trend is not expected to impact southeast AZ which means more of the same -- humid conditions with near normal temperatures & afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Heat stress was generally light last week as cooler temperatures & drier air combined to keep crop canopies below the Level 2 stress category in most locations. Growers should be seeing improved fruit retention in crops that have not reached cut-out. Heat stress information is available daily at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm