ROLL MAR 2, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************** | ********* 436 ******** | ********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 1 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 22 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 23 - MAR 1 This Week : MAR 2 - MAR 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 41 33 46 ---- Normal 75 41 33 51 Recorded 78 46 44 64 0.34 2013 75 41 30 52 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.7 MAR 1 ; Min = 58.5 FEB 23 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The cool & damp weekend weather will be replaced with warm & dry conditions by mid-week. This warming trend may last for an extended period. The current 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts exhibit a strong bias for above normal temperatures (through mid-March). Growers are encouraged to monitor soil temperatures prior to planting. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for acceptable germination. Minimum soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher and nighttime lows above 47F. Growers can monitor current weather conditions at local AZMET weather stations by logging on to the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) and clicking the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels at top of page to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. ROLL MAR 9, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************* | ********** 505 ********** | ************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 1 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 2 - MAR 8 This Week : MAR 9 - MAR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 75 41 33 51 ---- Normal 82 44 34 73 Recorded 80 45 44 70 0.00 2013 88 43 41 85 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 62.4 MAR 8 ; Min = 60.1 MAR 3 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Warmer temperatures will return to AZ early this week. A dry storm system will pass north of AZ mid-week, bringing a return to windy conditions Tuesday thru Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected in eastern AZ in the wake of this storm. Present forecasts indicate the cooler conditions will not reach western production areas. Temperatures should average ~3F above normal for the week. Soil temperatures at planting depth at 8am should be 60F for acceptable germin- ation. Soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher & nighttime lows above 47F. Growers can monitor current weather conditions at AZMET stations. Log on to the website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) and click the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels at top of page to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. ROLL MAR 16, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************** | ************ 578 ************ | ***************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 15 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 8 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 9 - MAR 15 This Week : MAR 16 - MAR 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 44 34 73 ---- Normal 83 45 34 77 Recorded 82 42 36 72 0.00 2013 86 48 45 94 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.7 MAR 14 ; Min = 60.4 MAR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate the weather this week, resulting in generally clear skies, warm temperatures & low humidity. Temperatures are expected to average 4-7 degrees above normal. Monitor soil temperatures prior to planting. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for accept- able germination. Minimum soil temperatures typically reach this 60F level with daytime highs of 80F or higher and nighttime lows above 47F. Weather data from local AZMET stations are available by logging on to the AZMET website (http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet) & clicking the "Current Conditions" label. Click on station labels to view conditions over the most recent 24 hours. ROLL MAR 23, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************* | ************** 651 ************** | ********************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 22 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 15 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 16 - MAR 22 This Week : MAR 23 - MAR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 45 34 77 ---- Normal 82 46 35 79 Recorded 83 40 36 75 0.00 2013 86 46 42 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.3 MAR 18 ; Min = 61.5 MAR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The week will begin with mostly sunny & warm conditions. However, a trough of low pressure will pass through AZ Wednesday, producing higher winds, some clouds & cooler conditions. Temperatures Thursday & Friday will approach normal levels (7-10 degrees cooler than early in the week). Warmer weather will return for the weekend as high pressure redevelops over the region. Heat unit (HU) accumulation continues to run well above normal & soil tempera- tures are much warmer than is typical for late March. Given the cool late-week forecast growers should monitor soil temperatures if planting late in the week. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) at planting depth should be 60F or higher for acceptable germination. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700 (see graph above). ROLL MAR 30, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************ | **************** 730 *************** | ************************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 29 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 22 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 23 - MAR 29 This Week : MAR 30 - APR 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 46 35 79 ---- Normal 81 47 35 76 Recorded 83 46 43 79 0.00 2013 88 50 45 99 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66.2 MAR 26 ; Min = 63.5 MAR 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A storm system is projected to impact AZ weather this week. Warm temperatures Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions mid-week. There is a slight chance for showers Wednesday. A return to normal temperatures is expected late in the week. Temperatures for the week should average ~2F below normal. --Closely monitor soil temperatures & the approaching storm system before plant- ing this week. Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700 (see graph). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". ROLL APR 6, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************************** | ****************** 789 **************** | *************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 29 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 30 - APR 5 This Week : APR 6 - APR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 81 47 35 76 ---- Normal 83 47 34 82 Recorded 77 43 37 59 0.00 2013 84 46 45 87 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66 MAR 30 ; Min = 61.7 APR 3 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will develop over AZ Monday. Expect clear skies & much warmer temperatures through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure is expected to impact the region late in the week, resulting in another bout of windy & cooler weather. Temperatures are expected to cool to near-normal levels by the weekend. No precipitation is expected with the passage of this trough. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --AZMET will release a new Current Conditions data display this week. Variables added include dew point, maximum & minimum temperature & maximum wind speed since midnight & precipitation. See website at: ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL APR 13, 2014 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************************* | ******************** 895 ******************** | ********************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 5 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 6 - APR 12 This Week : APR 13 - APR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 47 34 82 ---- Normal 87 48 34 93 Recorded 93 47 40 106 0.00 2013 82 46 39 76 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70 APR 12 ; Min = 63.3 APR 6 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect mostly sunny weather with a gradual warming trend through mid-week. Temp- eratures Wednesday should run ~5 degrees above normal. A series of storm systems are expected to impact AZ late in the week. The first system will remain north of AZ but will produce windy & slightly cooler temperatures. The second storm system will move across AZ & bring slightly cooler temperatures (near normal) & a slight chance for precipitation Friday & Saturday. --Growers in central AZ should complete their plantings of full season varieties as soon as possible (see graph above). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. See website at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 20, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 2/1 **************** 803 +8 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************** 695 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 *********** 560 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15******** 419 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ***** 236 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 19 v = Heat Units on APR 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 997; Last year = 861 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 103 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 13 - APR 19 This Week : APR 20 - APR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 48 34 93 ---- Normal 88 51 37 101 Recorded 89 49 43 103 0.00 2013 91 50 35 106 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .39" .32" .32" .32" .32" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early this week resulting in very warm & dry conditions. A storm system will pass north of AZ Wednesday, resulting in windy conditions & a return to near normal temperatures. A second storm system is for- cast to impact AZ this weekend. Current forecasts indicate this weekend system will be dry, but may produce a brief spell of below normal temperatures. --Western AZ growers: the first important developmental milestone for cotton is pinhead square when cotton transitions from vegetative to reproductive develop- ment. This typically occurs at ~700 HU after planting (see graph). --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. See website at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 27, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 2/1 ****************** 908 +7 days | v | | | | | | | 2/15**************** 800 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************* 665 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15********** 524 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ******* 341 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 26 v = Heat Units on APR 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1102; Last year = 967 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 104 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 20 - APR 26 This Week : APR 27 - MAY 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 88 51 37 101 ---- Normal 90 53 36 111 Recorded 90 51 43 104 0.00 2013 95 52 46 121 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .58" .45" .37" .37" .37" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will replace the weekend storm system, resulting in clear skies & a gradual warming trend. A period of moderate to strong winds is expected Tuesday & Wednesday as high pressure settles into the region. Much warmer temperatures & very dry conditions are expected late in the week. High temperatures in western production areas could approach 100F by the weekend. --The new AZMET Current Conditions data display is now available. Data are now be- ing updated every 15 minutes. See website at:http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. --Western AZ growers: the first important developmental milestone for cotton is pinhead square when cotton transitions from vegetative to reproductive develop- ment. This typically occurs at ~700 HU after planting (see graph). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 4, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 ******************** 1020 +7 days | | v | | | | | | | 2/15****************** 912 +5 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/1 **************** 777 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************* 636 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********* 453 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 3 v = Heat Units on APR 26; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1214; Last year = 1088 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 112 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 27 - MAY 3 This Week : MAY 4 - MAY 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 53 36 111 ---- Normal 94 55 39 124 Recorded 91 52 34 112 0.00 2013 88 54 42 107 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .87" .71" .52" .45" .45" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure that was responsible for the recent warm weather will weaken as a trough drops into the Great Basin Tuesday. This system will produce windy con- ditions Tuesday & a pronounced cooling trend mid-week. Temperatures on Wednesday will be ~10F below normal. No rainfall is expected with this system. High pres- sure will redevelop Friday, resulting in a return to above normal temperatures. --The first post-plant irrigation is typically applied when HU accumulation after planting ranges from 700-900. Earlier irrigations (lower HUs) are required in coarse textured soils; later irrigations (higher HUs) in finer textured soils. --The new AZMET Current Conditions report is now available. Data are updated every 15 minutes. See website at:http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 11, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 ********************** 1121 +5 days | | v | | | | | | 2/15******************** 1013 +3 days | | v | | | | | | | 3/1 ****************** 878 +1 day | v| | | | | | | | 3/15*************** 737 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 554 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 10 v = Heat Units on MAY 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1315; Last year = 1195 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 101 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 4 - MAY 10 This Week : MAY 11 - MAY 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 94 55 39 124 ---- Normal 96 56 39 132 Recorded 89 50 42 101 0.00 2013 97 57 47 138 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .86" .73" .56" .39" .38" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The storm system that produced Sunday's windy & cooler weather will exit the region Monday. High pressure will redevelop over the region early in the week, resulting first in another bout of windy weather, followed later by a return to hot & dry conditions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the mon- soon season indicates a bias for above normal temperatures & precipitation. The CPC has issued an El Nino Watch. Forecast models indicate a 65% chance of El Nino developing by summer. El Nino events often result in wetter than normal winters. --The first post-plant irrigation is typically applied when HU accumulation after planting ranges from 600-900. Earlier irrigations (lower HUs) are required in coarse textured soils; later irrigations (higher HUs) are expected in finer soils. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 18, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 ************************* 1243 +4 days | | | v | | | | | | 2/15*********************** 1135 +2 days | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ******************** 1000 0 days | |v | | | | | | | 3/15***************** 859 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************** 676 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 17 v = Heat Units on MAY 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1437; Last year = 1333 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 122 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 11 - MAY 17 This Week : MAY 18 - MAY 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 56 39 132 ---- Normal 96 59 43 138 Recorded 95 53 32 122 0.00 2013 99 55 47 130 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.26" 1.09" .89" .67" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The warm weekend temperatures are expected to end by mid-week as a trough of low pressure moves into the region. Expect windy conditions Monday through Wed- nesday with temperatures cooling to below normal levels by mid-week. Longer term forecasts suggest this system may stall over the region & keep the cooler temp- eratures in place for much of the week. A stalled system may also produce a few showers in high elevation areas. --The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for the monsoon months of July- September indicates a bias for both above normal temperatures & precipitation. The CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory for this summer. Forecast models now indicate a 65% chance for El Nino conditions to develop this summer. El Nino conditions are often associated with above normal winter precipitation. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 25, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 2/1 *************************** 1362 +3 days | | | v| | | | | | 2/15************************* 1254 +1 day | | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ********************** 1119 -1 day | | v| | | | | | | 3/15******************** 978 -2 days | v | | | | | | | 4/1 **************** 795 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 24 v = Heat Units on MAY 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1556; Last year = 1463 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 120 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 18 - MAY 24 This Week : MAY 25 - MAY 31 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 96 59 43 138 ---- Normal 99 59 43 144 Recorded 92 54 32 120 0.00 2013 99 59 41 146 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.25" 1.11" .93" .74" .5" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early in the week, resulting in clear skies & hot temperatures through mid-week. Tropical moisture is forecast to leak into the region Thursday & Friday, resulting in a chance for scattered thunderstorms in central & eastern production areas. Slightly cooler temperatures will develop with the moisture. Hot & dry June weather is expected to develop by the weekend. --The N fertilizer application window for cotton begins at pinhead square & ends at peak bloom (see graph). Split N applications are recommended to improve N use efficiency. For more information go to: http://cals.arizona.edu/crops/cotton/soilmgt/nitrogen_management.html ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 1, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 2/1 ****************************** 1524 +3 days | | | |v | | | | | 2/15**************************** 1416 +2 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ************************** 1281 0 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/15*********************** 1140 -1 day | | v | | | | | | | 4/1 ******************* 957 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 31 v = Heat Units on MAY 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1718; Last year = 1609 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 163 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 25 - MAY 31 This Week : JUN 1 - JUN 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 59 43 144 ---- Normal 100 61 43 150 Recorded 104 63 43 163 0.00 2013 108 63 48 163 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.62" 1.46" 1.26" 1.05" .78" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will remain in place much of this week, resulting in hot days, mild nights & very low humidity. Expect an increase in daytime winds & some slight cooling late in the week as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. Temperatures should average ~3 degrees above normal for the week. --Crop water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to hot & dry weather & rapid canopy development. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture and avoid water stress. Water stress often results in the shedding of small squares. ----Split N fertilizer applications are recommended between pinhead square & peak bloom to improve N use efficiency. For more information go to: http://cals.arizona.edu/crops/cotton/soilmgt/nitrogen_management.html ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 8, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | 2/1 ********************************** 1680 +4 days | | | | v | | | | | 2/15******************************* 1572 +2 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ***************************** 1437 0 days | | | v| | | | | | 3/15************************** 1296 -1 day | | |v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************** 1113 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 7 v = Heat Units on MAY 31; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1874; Last year = 1772 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 156 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 1 - JUN 7 This Week : JUN 8 - JUN 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 61 43 150 ---- Normal 100 61 44 150 Recorded 106 60 37 156 0.00 2013 108 64 41 168 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.96" 1.79" 1.58" 1.36" 1.07" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in clear skies hot days & mild evenings. The warmest temperatures are expected early in the week. Slightly cooler conditions are expected mid-week as a weak disturbance moves north of the region. Some moisture may leak into southeastern AZ late in the week, resulting in a few scattered thunderstorms in high elevation areas. Temperatures for the week should average about 2 degrees above normal. --Crop water use increases rapidly at this time of year due to hot & dry weather & rapid canopy development. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture and avoid water stress. Water stress often results in the shedding of small squares. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 15, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 ************************************* 1850 +4 days | | | | v | | | | 2/15*********************************** 1742 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ******************************** 1607 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 3/15***************************** 1466 0 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************** 1283 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 14 v = Heat Units on JUN 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2044; Last year = 1940 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 171 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 8 - JUN 14 This Week : JUN 15 - JUN 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 61 44 150 ---- Normal 104 64 47 166 Recorded 106 65 44 171 0.00 2013 106 63 43 161 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.34" 2.16" 1.94" 1.71" 1.4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A series of atmospheric disturbances will pass north of AZ early this week. These systems will keep temperatures at or slightly below normal through Wednes- day, but will produce several days with very windy conditions. Humidity levels should remain low statewide with the exception of southeastern AZ where slightly elevated humdity levels may result in a few widely scattered high elevation thunderstorms Monday & Tuesday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ late in the week, resulting in hot & dry conditions with less wind. --Growers are encouraged to monitor the crop for signs of water stress. Dry & windy weather accelerates water use & may require shortened irrigation intervals to avoid water stress. Water stress can result in the shedding of small squares. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 22, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 **************************************** 2012 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15************************************** 1904 +3 days | | | | |v | | | | 3/1 *********************************** 1769 +1 day | | | | v | | | | | 3/15********************************* 1628 0 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ***************************** 1445 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 21 v = Heat Units on JUN 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2206; Last year = 2101 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 161 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 15 - JUN 21 This Week : JUN 22 - JUN 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 64 47 166 ---- Normal 106 67 49 174 Recorded 104 63 41 161 0.00 2013 108 68 42 176 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.56" 2.38" 2.16" 1.94" 1.64" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Typical June weather is in store for much of AZ this week. Expect hot days & mild nights with clear skies & very low humidity. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Great Basin on Thursday & will produce a period of windy conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures late in the week. --Modeled heat stress levels are included in this advisory for the first time this week. These stress levels are estimated using temperature & humidity data collected at local AZMET stations. Data from the real time heat stress monitors that measure crop temperatures using infrared thermometers are available at: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 29, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | 2/1 ******************************************** 2186 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15****************************************** 2078 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 *************************************** 1943 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 3/15************************************ 1802 0 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************** 1619 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 28 v = Heat Units on JUN 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2380; Last year = 2277 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 173 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 22 - JUN 28 This Week : JUN 29 - JUL 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 67 49 174 ---- Normal 107 69 53 182 Recorded 106 67 46 173 0.00 2013 111 79 52 206 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.66" 2.66" 2.48" 2.25" 1.95" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure centered over western AZ will produce very hot & dry conditions through mid-week. The high is expected to shift toward the 4-Corners region late this week, allowing the first surge of monsoon moisture to enter AZ. Expect a gradual increase in humidity from east to west across AZ as the week progresses. Temperatures should cool a few degrees with the arrival of the moisture. The best chances for precipitation will be in southeastern production areas. --High temperatures when combined with high humidity can produce heat stress which leads to an increase in small boll abortion in cotton. Growers can monitor current heat stress conditions at: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 6, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ************************************************ 2379 +4 days | | | | | |v | | | 2/15********************************************* 2271 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ******************************************* 2136 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 3/15**************************************** 1995 +1 day | | | | |v | | | | 4/1 ************************************ 1812 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 5 v = Heat Units on JUN 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2573; Last year = 2483 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 192 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 29 - JUL 5 This Week : JUL 6 - JUL 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 69 53 182 ---- Normal 107 72 58 189 Recorded 107 73 60 192 0.01 2013 106 77 58 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.53" 2.53" 2.53" 2.44" 2.15" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 Stress ns ns ns ns L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The monsoon arrived last week with a strong surge of humidity & cooler daytime temperatures. However, the humidity & clouds resulted in elevated night tempera- tures in most areas. Heat stress was limited to L1 conditions at most low eleva- tion production areas (see below). High humidity will remain in place durng the first half of this week. An inverted trough is forecast to move across the state early this week, resulting in an uptick in thunderstorm activity. The high pres- sure center driving the monsoon flow is expected to shift west over AZ during the latter half of the week, resulting in less humidity & thunderstorm activity. --For information on heat stress: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 13, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 **************************************************** 2579 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15************************************************* 2471 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 *********************************************** 2336 +2 days | | | | | v| | | | 3/15******************************************** 2195 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 **************************************** 2012 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 12 v = Heat Units on JUL 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2773; Last year = 2685 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 199 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 6 - JUL 12 This Week : JUL 13 - JUL 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 72 58 189 ---- Normal 108 75 60 196 Recorded 106 77 61 199 0.00 2013 106 81 64 208 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.51" 2.51" 2.51" 2.51" 2.44" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 Stress L1 L2 L2 L1 L1 ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --An active monsoon remained in place across much of AZ last week, resulting in high humidity & widespread precipitation. More humidity & thunderstorm activity is expected through Tuesday as another easterly wave moves across the region. High pressure will build back over AZ by midweek, producing a drier & less favor- able monsoon flow pattern. Expect less clouds, warmer temperatures & reduced chances for precipitation Wednesday-Friday. Longer range forecast models call for a return to higher humidity & more favorable monsoonal flow by the weekend. --The cooler & cloudy weather has limited heat stress in most production areas. For information on heat stress: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 20, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | 2/1 ******************************************************** 2775 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15***************************************************** 2667 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 *************************************************** 2532 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************ 2391 +1 day | | | | | v| | | | 4/1 ******************************************** 2208 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 19 v = Heat Units on JUL 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2969; Last year = 2893 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 196 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 13 - JUL 19 This Week : JUL 20 - JUL 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 75 60 196 ---- Normal 106 76 63 198 Recorded 106 75 53 196 0.00 2013 102 77 68 201 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.59" 2.59" 2.59" 2.59" 2.59" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 Stress L1 L1 ns L1 ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in very hot & generally dry conditions through mid-week. Forecast models are calling for record heat Tuesday-Thursday with high temperatures exceeding 110F in the low deserts. Humidity levels will remain low through mid-week, then increase as a more supportive monsoon flow regime develops late in the week. Expect increased thunderstorm activity along with slightly cooler temperatures by Friday. --Avoid water stress during this period of extreme heat. For information on heat stress conditions go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 27, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 ************************************************************ 2975 +4 days | | | | | | v | | 2/15********************************************************* 2867 +3 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ******************************************************* 2732 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15**************************************************** 2591 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************ 2408 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 26 v = Heat Units on JUL 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3169; Last year = 3094 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 199 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 20 - JUL 26 This Week : JUL 27 - AUG 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 76 63 198 ---- Normal 106 75 62 197 Recorded 111 76 53 199 0.00 2013 108 75 65 196 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.62" 2.62" 2.62" 2.62" 2.62" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 Stress ns ns L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High humidity along with an upper level disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms Monday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ beginning Tuesday, resulting in lower humidity, reduced chances for precipitation & hotter temp- eratures through Thursday. A more favorable monsoon flow with increasing hum- idity is expected to return by the coming weekend. --Last week produced the hottest temperatures of the growing season with sev- eral locations reporting 117F. Humidity levels were sufficient to produce L2 heat stress in central/western AZ. L2 stress often results in heavy fruit shed. For more on heat stress see: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 3, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 **************************************************************** 3176 +4 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15************************************************************* 3068 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 *********************************************************** 2933 +2 days | | | | | | v| | | 3/15******************************************************** 2792 +1 day | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 **************************************************** 2609 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 2 v = Heat Units on JUL 26; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3370; Last year = 3290 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 201 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 27 - AUG 2 This Week : AUG 3 - AUG 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 62 197 ---- Normal 107 74 59 195 Recorded 106 78 63 201 0.33 2013 106 72 51 186 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.96" 2.08" 2.1" 2.1" 2.1" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L2 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry southwesterly flow will develop over AZ this week leading a downturn in monsoon activity. Expect clear skies with above normal temperatures & lower hum- idity through Friday. Precipitation will be limited to the mountains of eastern AZ. A more humid flow pattern is expected to return by this weekend. --The Climate Prediction Center(CPC) August forecast indicates a slight wet bias for the eastern half of AZ with near normal precipitation in western AZ. August temperatures are expected to run near normal. The CPC forecast for August thru October indicates a moderate wet bias statewide. August thru October temperatures are forecast to run near normal except for a slight warm bias for western AZ. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 10, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | 2/1 ******************************************************************* 3357 +4 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15***************************************************************** 3249 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ************************************************************** 3114 +1 day | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*********************************************************** 2973 +1 day | | | | | | v| | | 4/1 ******************************************************** 2790 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 9 v = Heat Units on AUG 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3551; Last year = 3476 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 180 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 3 - AUG 9 This Week : AUG 10 - AUG 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 59 195 ---- Normal 106 75 62 197 Recorded 102 70 60 180 0.16 2013 109 70 46 181 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.8" 1.93" 2.1" 2.18" 2.18" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A subtropical disturbance is expected enhance shower & thunderstorm activity early this week. Humidity levels increased over the weekend & this disturbance will provide additional lifting to enhance storm development. The best day for precipitation will be Tuesday as the disturbance moves across AZ. A slow drying trend with reduced chances for precipitation is expected late in the week. --The Climate Prediction Center forecast for August thru October indicates a moderate wet bias statewide. August thru October temperatures are forecast to run near normal except for a slight warm bias in western AZ. The CPC will issue the next set of fall & winter forecasts next week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 17, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v 3557 | 2/1 *********************************************************************** +4 days | | | | | | | v 3449 | 2/15********************************************************************* +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ****************************************************************** 3314 +1 day | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*************************************************************** 3173 +1 day | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ************************************************************ 2990 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 16 v = Heat Units on AUG 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3751; Last year = 3657 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 201 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 10 - AUG 16 This Week : AUG 17 - AUG 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 62 197 ---- Normal 107 74 60 194 Recorded 103 77 67 201 0.09 2013 106 77 58 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.47" 1.6" 1.75" 1.92" 2.05" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 Stress L1 L2 ns L1 L1 L1 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A wet, relatively cool week is on tap for much of AZ. The high pressure system that drives monsoon flow will remain in good position to generate afternoon & evening thunderstorms this week. In addition, a trough is expected to develop off the CA coast & spawn a closed low pressure system. Closed lows provide additional lift to assist shower & thunderstorm development. High humidity, cooler conditions & thunderstorm activity are expected as the low moves slowly toward AZ. Present forecasts indicate this system will move into AZ late this week & tap into added moisture from a dying tropical system presently near southern Baja. Expect a mild & potentially wet end to the week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 24, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3743 | 2/1 **************************************************************************+4 days | | | | | | | | 3635 | 2/15************************************************************************* +3 days | | | | | | | |v 3500 | 3/1 ********************************************************************** +1 day | | | | | | | v | | 3/15******************************************************************* 3359 +1 day | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 **************************************************************** 3176 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 23 v = Heat Units on AUG 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3937; Last year = 3859 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 187 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 17 - AUG 23 This Week : AUG 24 - AUG 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 60 194 ---- Normal 107 74 60 194 Recorded 100 73 66 187 1.08 2013 99 77 66 197 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.21" 1.33" 1.48" 1.64" 1.85" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 Stress L2 ns L1 ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A strong surge of moisture aided by Hurricane Marie & an approaching disturbance from the Pacific Northwest are expected to produce widepread & potentially heavy rainfall in southeast & central AZ Monday & Tuesday. Some precipitation is possible in western AZ as well. Cooler temperatures are expected as this system moves through the region. Sunny & much drier conditions will return late in the week and temperatures should return to normal by the weekend. --The new Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts for fall, winter & spring show a weak to moderate bias for above normal precipitation. The CPC forecasts reflect the general consensus that a weak to moderate El Nino will develop later this year. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 31, 2014 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3934 | 2/1 **************************************************************************+4 days | | | | | | | | 3826v | 2/15**************************************************************************+3 days | | | | | | | | 3691 | 3/1 **************************************************************************+1 day | | | | | | | | v 3550 | 3/15*********************************************************************** 0 days | | | | | | | v| | 4/1 ******************************************************************* 3367 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 30 v = Heat Units on AUG 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 4128; Last year = 4056 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 191 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 24 - AUG 30 This Week : AUG 31 - SEP 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 60 194 ---- Normal 106 73 59 191 Recorded 106 73 58 191 0.00 2013 106 77 71 199 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.1" 1.23" 1.4" 1.57" 1.79" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 Stress L1 L1 L1 ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Current hot & dry conditions will continue through mid-week. Humidity will reenter the state beginning Wednesday & increase through the coming weekend. Expect an increasing chance for thunderstorms late in the week, especially if tropical activity developing south of Baja moves closer to AZ. Temperatures should cool a few degrees with the return of moisture mid-week. --Current long-term forecasts show a moderate wet bias for this fall & winter. This is the final advisory for 2014. Have a safe & profitable harvest season.