ROLL MAR 6, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************ | ********** 475 ********* | ************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 27 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 28 - MAR 5 This Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 75 41 33 49 ---- Normal 80 43 34 68 Recorded 87 43 44 89 0.00 2015 86 48 42 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 64.4 MAR 5 ; Min = 61.9 FEB 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Cloudy & cooler conditions are expected early this week as a storm system moves across northern Mexico. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Monday & Tuesday then rebound to above normal by late in the week. Precipitation with this system is expected to be light with highest amounts in southern AZ. A 2nd storm is expected this weekend & may provide another round of cool & wet weather. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet & click on the button labeled Agricultural Stations Current Conditions. ROLL MAR 13, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************** | ************ 539 ********** | *************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 5 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 This Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 43 34 68 ---- Normal 82 45 34 75 Recorded 79 44 39 64 0.00 2015 84 52 47 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 66.2 MAR 6 ; Min = 60.8 MAR 8 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Sunny, warm & dry conditions are expected this week with temperatures averaging nearly 10 degrees above normal. Current 10-14 day forecasts suggest the rest of March will continue warm & dry. Longer term, the 90-day forecast continues shows a strong wet bias, suggesting wet spring conditions. -Heat unit accumulation at most low elevation production areas now exceeds 400 which signals the opening of the planting window for long, full season cotton. However, minimum soil temperatures are still below optimal levels in many areas due to cool morning temperatures. Minimum soil temperatures should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL MAR 6, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************ | ********** 475 ********* | ************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 27 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 28 - MAR 5 This Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 75 41 33 49 ---- Normal 80 43 34 68 Recorded 87 43 44 89 0.00 2015 86 48 42 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 64.4 MAR 5 ; Min = 61.9 FEB 28 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Cloudy & cooler conditions are expected early this week as a storm system moves across northern Mexico. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Monday & Tuesday then rebound to above normal by late in the week. Precipitation with this system is expected to be light with highest amounts in southern AZ. A 2nd storm is expected this weekend & may provide another round of cool & wet weather. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet & click on the button labeled Agricultural Stations Current Conditions. ROLL MAR 20, 2016 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************* | ************** 628 ************ | ******************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 12 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 This Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 45 34 75 ---- Normal 83 46 35 79 Recorded 87 45 42 89 0.00 2015 90 48 46 103 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.3 MAR 19 ; Min = 63.1 MAR 13 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A sunny & hot Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions midweek as a storm system passes north of the region. Temperatures will cool from 15 degrees above normal to near normal Wednesday & Thursday. Warmer conditions are expected late in the week, followed by the arrival of another storm system late this weekend. No precipitation is expected this week. The CPC's latest long range forecast for April exhibits a moderate warm bias & a weak wet bias (exception: normal in SW AZ). Forecasts for April-June exhibit weak warm & wet biases. -Minimum soil temperatures should exceed 60F at planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAR 27, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 2/1 ************ 587 +11 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15********* 465 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ****** 290 +3 days | | | | | | | | | 3/15*** 143 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAR 26 v = Heat Units on MAR 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 715; Last year = 753 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 87 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 This Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 46 35 79 ---- Normal 81 47 35 77 Recorded 86 45 38 87 0.00 2015 91 50 43 106 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 Water Use (last week): .33" .33" .33" .33" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 10/1 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A strong storm system will move across the Great Basin this week, bringing high winds & below normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Precipitation with this storm will be limited to high elevation areas of central & northern AZ. Temperatures will return to above normal levels by the weekend. -Snow pack above Lake Powell has diminished due to recent dry weather & presently rests at 92% of the 30-yr median value. Present forecasts for Colorado River flow for April-July call for 5,200,000 Acre Feet or 80% of median flow. -Minimum soil temperatures (STn) should exceed 60F at planting. STn approach 60F when minimum air temperatures stay above 47F. For current weather including soil temperatures go to http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. Click on "Agricultural Stations" ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 3, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 2/1 ************* 652 +14 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15*********** 530 +10 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ******* 355 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15**** 208 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 4/1 13 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 2 v = Heat Units on MAR 26; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 780; Last year = 859 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 66 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 This Week : APR 3 - APR 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 81 47 35 77 ---- Normal 82 47 35 79 Recorded 79 44 39 66 0.00 2015 82 45 36 75 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .3" .3" .3" .3" .3" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 10/1 10/2 10/3 10/4 10/5 10/6 10/7 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Mostly sunny & dry through mid-week with very warm daytime temperatures. A more unsettled pattern will develop late this week as a pair of storms moves across the area. Expect increasing clouds & humidity, cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation Thursday-Sunday. Neither storm system is cold, but temperatures are expected to return to near normal as these systems impact the region. -Snow pack above Lake Powell improved last week & currently rests at rests at 95% of the 30-yr median value. Present Colorado River flow forecasts for April- July call for 5,360,000 Acre Feet or 83% of median flow. -A good cotton planting forecast: clear & dry weather with highs above 80F, lows above 47F & minimum soil temperatures above 60F. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 10, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | | 2/1 *************** 757 +15 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************* 635 +11 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ********* 460 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15****** 313 +3 days | | | | | | | | | 4/1 ** 118 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 9 v = Heat Units on APR 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 885; Last year = 934 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 105 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 3 - APR 9 This Week : APR 10 - APR 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 47 35 79 ---- Normal 86 48 34 90 Recorded 88 51 49 105 0.59 2015 84 46 41 89 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .32" .29" .29" .29" .29" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A weak storm system will pass through AZ Monday & Tuesday, resulting in cooler temperatures & a chance for showers. Warmer & drier conditions will return mid- week, only to be followed by another storm system this weekend that will result in cooler temperatures & a chance for precipitation. Chances for precipitation from the weekend system will be higher in more northern production areas. -A good cotton planting forecast: clear & dry weather with highs above 80F, lows above 47F & minimum soil temperatures above 60F. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms flower buds (squares). Early plantings in western AZ should be at or beyond PHS which typically occurs at ~700 heat units after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 17, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | | 2/1 ***************** 844 +13 days | v| | | | | | | | 2/15************** 722 +10 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 *********** 547 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15******** 400 +2 days |v | | | | | | | | 4/1 **** 205 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 16 v = Heat Units on APR 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 972; Last year = 1023 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 87 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 86 48 34 90 ---- Normal 87 50 36 98 Recorded 82 52 45 87 0.03 2015 86 48 37 90 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .47" .34" .34" .34" .34" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ during the work week, resulting in clear skies & very warm temperatures. Another storm system is expected to impact AZ this weekend, resulting in cooler, unsettled conditions. Longer term forecasts suggest this unsettled pattern could persist through the end of the month. --The storm system that moved across Colorado this weekend produced heavy snow in the Colorado mountains, increasing spring runoff estimates by ~300,000 AF. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms flower buds (squares). PHS typically occurs ~700 heat units after planting. Early plantings in western AZ should be at or beyond PHS. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 24, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 2/1 ******************* 956 +13 days | v | | | | | | | 2/15***************** 834 +10 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************* 659 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15********** 512 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ****** 317 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 23 v = Heat Units on APR 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1084; Last year = 1113 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 111 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 17 - APR 23 This Week : APR 24 - APR 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 50 36 98 ---- Normal 90 52 36 109 Recorded 93 50 39 111 0.00 2015 93 54 44 119 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .7" .54" .4" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Three storm systems will impact AZ this week, resulting in windy conditions, much cooler temperatures & a chance for rain. The 1st system will pass north of AZ Monday, bringing high winds & much cooler temperatures. The next 2 systems will move across AZ Thursday & Sunday, bringing more wind, cooler temperatures & a slight chance for rain. Temperatures should average ~5F below normal. --Growers in central AZ are encouraged to plant shorter season varieties as HU accumulation now exceeds 900-1000 across the region (see graph above). --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares. PHS typically occurs ~700 heat units after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 1, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 2/1 ********************* 1039 +10 days | | v| | | | | | | 2/15****************** 917 +7 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/1 *************** 742 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************ 595 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ******** 400 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 30 v = Heat Units on APR 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1167; Last year = 1232 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 82 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 24 - APR 30 This Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 52 36 109 ---- Normal 93 54 38 121 Recorded 82 49 41 82 0.00 2015 82 54 50 96 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .79" .64" .42" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in clear skies & much warmer temperatures through Thursday. A strong storm system will impact the region late this week. Expect very windy conditions Thursday, followed by much cooler temperatures through the weekend. Forecasts suggest a slight chance for rain, particularly in more northerly production areas. --Growers are encouraged to plant shorter season varieties as heat unit (HU) accumulation now exceeds 800 in most production areas. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares, typically at nodes 5-7. PHS typically occurs ~700 HU after planting. These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 8, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 *********************** 1141 +8 days | | v | | | | | | 2/15******************** 1019 +5 days | |v | | | | | | | 3/1 ***************** 844 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 697 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 502 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 7 v = Heat Units on APR 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1269; Last year = 1328 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 101 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 This Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 54 38 121 ---- Normal 95 56 39 129 Recorded 87 52 48 101 0.08 2015 84 52 44 95 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .84" .7" .5" .36" .36" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --The cool weekend weather will dissipate early this week as high pressure re- develops over AZ. Expect sunny skies, low humidity & a rapid warming trend. Daytime temperatures will run more than 10F above normal late in the week with many low elevation production areas topping 100F. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for the weekend as another storm system passes to the north. --Pinhead square (PHS) refers to the stage of cotton development when the crop first forms squares, typically at nodes 5-7. PHS typically occurs ~700 HU after planting. These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. --The May 1 forecast for Colorado River flow (Apr-Jul) is 5.5 MAF (77% of avg). More recent ESP modeling projects ~5.8 MAF, reflecting recent wet weather. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 15, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | 2/1 ************************* 1265 +7 days | | | v | | | | | | 2/15*********************** 1143 +5 days | | v| | | | | | | 3/1 ******************* 968 +1 day | v | | | | | | | 3/15**************** 821 0 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 626 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 14 v = Heat Units on MAY 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1393; Last year = 1423 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 126 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 This Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 56 39 129 ---- Normal 97 59 42 140 Recorded 94 55 50 126 0.00 2015 84 54 48 102 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.08" .93" .7" .51" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A storm system will drop into the Southwest this week, bringing increased winds, cooler temperatures & a slight chance for precipitation mid-week. Precipitation is more likely in northern & central production areas. Warmer & drier weather will return late in the week. --Recent wet weather in the Colorado River Basin has improved flow forecasts. The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction calls for April-July flow of 6.2 MAF, 86% of average. Current precipitation forecasts call for another wet week in the Colorado Basin which could further improve flow forecasts. --First squares typically appear at nodes 5-7 at ~700 HU after planting (see graph above). These first squares develop into flowers ~1200 HU after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 22, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 2/1 **************************** 1397 +7 days | | | v| | | | | | 2/15************************** 1275 +4 days | | |v | | | | | | 3/1 ********************** 1100 0 days | | v | | | | | | | 3/15******************* 953 -1 day | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 758 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 21 v = Heat Units on MAY 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1525; Last year = 1525 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 131 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 This Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 59 42 140 ---- Normal 97 59 43 140 Recorded 92 58 49 131 0.00 2015 95 54 45 124 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.38" 1.2" .96" .75" .47" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect cool & breezy conditions as a trough of low pressure develops over the Southwest this week. Storm systems associated with this pattern will track north of AZ, resulting in little chance for precipitation. However, these systems will draw cooler air into AZ & generate windy conditions at times. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River calls for spring flow of 6,600,000 Acre Feet (92% of average) with more precipitation expected late this week. --Nitrogen fertilizer is best applied in split applications between pinhead square & peak bloom. For more details see publication az1243 at: http://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 29, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 2/1 ****************************** 1506 +5 days | | | |v | | | | | 2/15**************************** 1384 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/1 ************************ 1209 -1 day | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************* 1062 -2 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ***************** 867 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 28 v = Heat Units on MAY 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1634; Last year = 1649 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 110 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 This Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 59 43 140 ---- Normal 101 61 42 150 Recorded 88 53 43 110 0.00 2015 97 57 44 137 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.48" 1.32" 1.08" .88" .61" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ this week, producing clear & dry weather with very hot daytime temperatures, particularly during the latter half of the week. Some moisture may leak into far southeast AZ Monday & Tuesday, producing a slight chance of high elevation thunderstorms. Central & western production areas should remain dry this week. The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Predict- ion for the Colorado River calls for 6,660,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (93% of average); more precipitation is expected in the basin this week. --Nitrogen fertilizer is best applied in split applications between pinhead square & peak bloom. For more details see publication az1243 at: http://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 5, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | 2/1 ********************************* 1654 +5 days | | | | v | | | | | 2/15******************************* 1532 +2 days | | | v | | | | | 3/1 *************************** 1357 -1 day | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************ 1210 -2 days | | v| | | | | | | 4/1 ******************** 1015 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 4 v = Heat Units on MAY 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1782; Last year = 1786 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 147 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 This Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 61 42 150 ---- Normal 99 61 44 149 Recorded 102 60 47 147 0.00 2015 99 64 51 160 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.98" 1.79" 1.5" 1.27" .95" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will remain in place Monday resulting in one final day of very hot temperatures. A trough will pass through the Great Basin Tuesday producing a cooling trend that will bring temperatures back to normal by mid-week. Some moisture is expected to leak into central & southeast AZ during the latter half of the week resulting in widely scattered mountain thunderstorms. No significant precipitation is expected in cotton production areas from these storms. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River remains unchanged at ~6,660,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (92% of average). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 12, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 ************************************ 1825 +6 days | | | | v | | | | 2/15********************************** 1703 +4 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ******************************* 1528 0 days | | | v | | | | | 3/15**************************** 1381 -1 day | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1186 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 11 v = Heat Units on JUN 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1953; Last year = 1946 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 171 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 This Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 61 44 149 ---- Normal 104 63 46 161 Recorded 101 67 55 171 0.01 2015 109 68 55 178 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.11" 1.93" 1.66" 1.44" 1.14" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Mild temperatures early in the week will give way to very hot temperatures by the coming weekend as intense high pressure develops over AZ. High tempera- tures this coming weekend are expected to reach 115F or higher in lower eleva- tion production areas. Clear skies & low humidity will accompany the heat, pro- ducing high rates of evaporative demand. Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abortion & lower rates of fruit retention. --The most recent Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the Colorado River calls for ~6,700,000 Acre Feet of spring flow (93% of average). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 19, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 **************************************** 1977 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15************************************* 1855 +3 days | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ********************************** 1680 -1 day | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************* 1533 -1 day | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1338 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 18 v = Heat Units on JUN 11; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2105; Last year = 2124 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 152 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 This Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 63 46 161 ---- Normal 106 66 49 172 Recorded 102 60 45 152 0.00 2015 108 73 55 193 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.34" 2.16" 1.89" 1.67" 1.37" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Intense high pressure will keep extreme temperatures in place early this week. Some cooling is expected mid-week as moisture from a tropical system moves into the region, though temperatures will remain above normal. The moisture may pro- duce thunderstorms in/adjacent to high elevation areas in central & eastern AZ. Drier air will return to central & western areas late in the week. --Heat stress developed in selected areas this past weekend, particularly in locations where winds kept night temperatures very warm. The influx of moisture this week may produce additional & more widespread heat stress. Heat stress con- ditions can be monitored at: http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 26, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | 2/1 ******************************************* 2170 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15***************************************** 2048 +3 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ************************************* 1873 0 days | | | | v | | | | 3/15*********************************** 1726 0 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1531 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 25 v = Heat Units on JUN 18; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2298; Last year = 2317 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 193 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 This Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 66 49 172 ---- Normal 107 69 51 180 Recorded 111 73 50 193 0.00 2015 102 77 64 201 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.99" 2.98" 2.65" 2.38" 2.02" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong early season monsoon flow will develop this week, replacing last week's intense heat. Expect elevated humidity levels statewide with a chance for after- noon & evening thunderstorms each day. Temperatures have already moderated to near normal levels in central & eastern production areas & will return to normal in western production areas with the arrival of the moisture early this week. --Heat stress developed in some low desert locations last week, but generally registered in the less severe Level 1 category. Higher humidity levels this week could generate more severe Level 2 stress in locations where night temperatures remain high. More details at http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 3, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ************************************************ 2375 +6 days | | | | | v | | | 2/15********************************************* 2253 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ****************************************** 2078 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 3/15*************************************** 1931 +1 day | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1736 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 2 v = Heat Units on JUN 25; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2503; Last year = 2518 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 205 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 This Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 69 51 180 ---- Normal 106 71 57 187 Recorded 108 79 59 205 0.00 2015 99 70 62 178 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.74" 2.74" 2.74" 2.52" 2.19" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 Stress L2 L2 L2 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure is expected to cut off the monsoon flow regime this week. Expect near-normal temperatures with clear skies & low humidity. The exception to this forecast is in southeastern AZ where a mid-week surge of humidity may produce isolated showers & thunderstorms Wednesday & Thursday. --Heat stress developed in many low desert production areas last week. However, temperatures cooled substantially & much of the heat stress registered as the less severe Level 1 stress. Lower humidity & cooler night temperatures should minimize problems with heat stress this week. Local heat stress conditions can be monitored at http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 10, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 *************************************************** 2568 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15************************************************* 2446 +4 days | | | | | |v | | | 3/1 ********************************************* 2271 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 3/15****************************************** 2124 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *************************************** 1929 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 9 v = Heat Units on JUL 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2696; Last year = 2696 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 193 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 This Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 71 57 187 ---- Normal 108 74 59 194 Recorded 109 73 51 193 0.00 2015 102 70 53 179 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 3.08" 3.08" 3.08" 3.08" 2.84" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 ns ns L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Dry southwesterly flow will remain in place through mid-week, resulting in hot days, low humidity & moderate nighttime temperatures. Expect temperatures to run ~3 degrees above normal during this period. Monsoon flow is expected to redevelop later in the week, resulting in slightly cooler daytime tempera- tures, higher humidity & a return to afternoon & evening thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend & into early next week. --Spring flow season for the Colorado River ends on 31 July. Flow is expected to total 6.7 MAF (94% of average). Projections for the water year (ends 30 September) now stand at 9.9 MAF or 92% of average. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 17, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ******************************************************* 2763 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15***************************************************** 2641 +4 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ************************************************* 2466 +1 day | | | | | |v | | | 3/15********************************************** 2319 +1 day | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ****************************************** 2124 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 16 v = Heat Units on JUL 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2891; Last year = 2875 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 195 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 This Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 74 59 194 ---- Normal 107 76 62 198 Recorded 111 74 48 195 0.00 2015 102 73 66 188 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 3.28" 3.28" 3.28" 3.28" 3.28" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 Stress L1 ns ns ns L1 L1 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Monsoon flow will remain in place through mid-week, resulting in near-normal temperatures, elevated humidity levels & a chance for afternoon/evening thunder- storms. Moisture levels & precipitation chances will be highest in central & eastern production areas. Drier air is expected to enter the region late in the week, resulting in much warmer temperatures & a reduction in the chances for precipitation. Temperatures for the week should average ~2 degrees above normal. --Elevated temperature & humidity levels should generate heat stress in low desert production areas this week. Heat stress causes shedding of young bolls (<5 days post bloom). See http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 24, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 *********************************************************** 2972 +6 days | | | | | | v | | 2/15********************************************************* 2850 +5 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ****************************************************** 2675 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15*************************************************** 2528 +1 day | | | | | |v | | | 4/1 *********************************************** 2333 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 23 v = Heat Units on JUL 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3100; Last year = 3063 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 209 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 This Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 76 62 198 ---- Normal 106 76 62 197 Recorded 112 81 56 209 0.00 2015 106 75 60 198 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.86" 2.86" 2.86" 2.86" 2.86" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 Stress L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Monsoon flow will develop across the region this week, resulting in increased humidity & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms in central & eastern production areas. The best chances for precipitation are early & late in the week as some drying is expected mid-week, particularly in central & western production areas. Temperatures will continue to run above normal & when combined with the increased humidity will produce heat stress in central & western AZ. Heat stress causes shedding of young bolls (<5 days old) which lowers overall fruit retention. For details go to http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 31, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 **************************************************************** 3186 +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15************************************************************* 3064 +5 days | | | | | | |v | | 3/1 ********************************************************** 2889 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15******************************************************* 2742 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *************************************************** 2547 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 30 v = Heat Units on JUL 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3314; Last year = 3261 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 214 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 This Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 76 62 197 ---- Normal 108 75 60 197 Recorded 111 83 62 214 0.00 2015 108 75 60 200 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.91" 3.13" 3.13" 3.13" 3.13" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High moisture levels in combination with a favorable atmospheric flow regime will produce a wet start to the week. Expect very humid conditions with a good chance for rainfall each day through Wednesday. Heavy rain is possible with this weather pattern. Drier air is expected to reenter the region late in the week, reducing the chances for precipitation, particularly in western AZ. Humidity levels will remain sufficient for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in central & eastern AZ late this week. Temperatures will drop to below normal levels through mid-week, then return to normal as the drier conditions return. -Colorado River flow for April-July was ~6.6 MAF--slightly above median flow. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 7, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | 2/1 ******************************************************************** 3400 +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15****************************************************************** 3278 +6 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ************************************************************** 3103 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*********************************************************** 2956 +2 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ******************************************************* 2761 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 6 v = Heat Units on JUL 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3528; Last year = 3461 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 214 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 This Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 75 60 197 ---- Normal 106 75 61 195 Recorded 108 83 59 214 0.00 2015 111 77 61 201 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.28" 2.47" 2.75" 2.82" 2.82" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Moisture from Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce very wet conditions this week. The week will begin with warm & relatively dry conditions Monday. Tropical moisture will enter AZ Tuesday & remain in place through Thursday. Cooler temperatures will accompany the moisture as will greatly elevated chances for precipitation. Current forecasts call for precipitation amounts ranging from 1.0-2.0" in the desert areas of central & southeast AZ with much higher amounts in the mountains. Warmer & drier conditions are expected late in the week as the moisture departs to the east. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 14, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v3609 | 2/1 ********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | |v 3487 | 2/15********************************************************************* +6 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ****************************************************************** 3312 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15*************************************************************** 3165 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 *********************************************************** 2970 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 13 v = Heat Units on AUG 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3737; Last year = 3662 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 210 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 This Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 61 195 ---- Normal 106 75 61 195 Recorded 107 80 63 210 0.59 2015 104 79 65 203 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.02" 2.22" 2.5" 2.74" 2.92" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 Stress L1 L1 L2 L1 L1 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure developed over the region this past weekend, putting an end to the humid, tropical conditions that impacted central & eastern AZ last week. High pressure will remain in place through Wednesday, producing clear skies, lower humidity & above normal temperatures. Monsoon flow will return late in the week, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. -Heat stress information is available from AZMET website at the following URLs: (http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt) for statewide report & (http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm#HEATSTRESS) the real time monitors. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 21, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3818 | 2/1 ********************************************************************* +9 days | | | | | | | | 3696 | 2/15********************************************************************* +7 days | | | | | | | |v 3521 | 3/1 ********************************************************************* +4 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15******************************************************************* 3374 +3 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 **************************************************************** 3179 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 20 v = Heat Units on AUG 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3946; Last year = 3865 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 210 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 This Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 61 195 ---- Normal 107 74 60 194 Recorded 110 81 62 210 0.07 2015 108 79 66 206 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.58" 1.76" 2.03" 2.26" 2.56" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon moisture will remain in place Monday, providing a chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Drier air will enter AZ Tuesday & remain in place until late in the week, resulting in near normal temperatures & greatly reduced chances for precipitation. Longer term forecast models indicate a return to monsoon moisture by late in the week. -Heat stress diminished late last week as cooler temperatures entered the region. In most years, cooler temperatures & lengthening nights combine to end the heat stress season by early September. For more information see AZMET website at: http://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 28, 2016 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4018 | 2/1 ********************************************************************* +9 days | | | | | | | | 3896 v| 2/15********************************************************************* +7 days | | | | | | | | 3721 | 3/1 ********************************************************************* +4 days | | | | | | | | 3574 | 3/15********************************************************************* +4 days | | | | | | | v| | 4/1 ******************************************************************** 3379 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 27 v = Heat Units on AUG 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 4146; Last year = 4071 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 199 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 This Week : AUG 28 - SEP 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 60 194 ---- Normal 106 74 59 192 Recorded 104 77 0 199 0.00 2015 104 75 62 196 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.15" 1.32" 1.56" 1.77" 2.04" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 Stress ns L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Following a hot & dry Monday, moisture will return to central & eastern AZ Tuesday, resulting in increasing chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms mid-week. Slightly cooler temperatures will accompany the moisture. Drier air with elevated daytime temperatures will return this weekend. -The long range forecast for September exhibits a moderate warm bias & weak wet bias. The forecast for Oct-Dec reveals a strong warm bias & weak dry bias. -This will be the final advisory for the 2016 growing season. Have a safe & profitable harvest season! ROLL MAR 4, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************** | ******* 364 ****** | ****************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 4 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 25 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 26 - MAR 4 This Week : MAR 4 - MAR 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 41 33 48 ---- Normal 79 43 34 64 Recorded 73 40 42 43 0.12 2016 79 43 41 64 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 59.7 MAR 4 ; Min = 57.4 MAR 1 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will result in clear & dry weather this week with very warm temp- eratures. After a cool start to the week on Monday, temperatures will increase to 10-15 degrees above normal by mid-week & remain in place for the rest of the week. Some slight moderation in temperature is expected next weekend. Long-term forecasts suggest warm & dry conditions will prevail for the next 10-14 days. -Soils typically warm to acceptable levels for germination when daytime high temperatures exceed 80F & minimum temperatures remain 48F & above. -The March 1st April-July flow forecast for the Colorado River of 10.4 MAF (145% of normal) has lessened the probability of a water shortage in 2018. ROLL MAR 18, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | **************************** | ************ 550 *********** | **************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 18 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 11 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 12 - MAR 18 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 45 34 75 ---- Normal 83 46 35 80 Recorded 95 49 48 114 0.00 2016 86 45 38 86 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.7 MAR 17 ; Min = 66.4 MAR 11 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -The unusual March heat wave will end with the passage of a strong storm system mid-week. Some precipitation is expected Wednesday as the system passes over AZ. Much cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday through Saturday with highs in low desert production areas remaining in the 70s. Longer-term forecasts suggest the storm track will move closer to AZ over the next 7-10 days, resulting in more unsettled weather & cooler temperatures. -Soils have warmed considerably in recent weeks & are approaching acceptable levels for planting in many areas. Growers considering planting early should closely monitor weather forecasts (see above). A good cotton planting forecast calls for clear skies with highs above 80F & lows above 47F. ROLL MAR 25, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************** | ************** 649 ************* | ******************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 25 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 18 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 19 - MAR 25 This Week : MAR 25 - APR 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 46 35 80 ---- Normal 82 47 35 78 Recorded 87 52 46 99 0.08 2016 79 45 38 66 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 73 MAR 22 ; Min = 67.1 MAR 24 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -An active storm track positioned near the 4-Corners will result in a week of unsettled weather. Expect warm & windy conditions Monday followed by cooler conditions Tuesday along with a slight chance for showers. Warmer conditions will return mid-week only to be replaced by cooler conditions this weekend. -March has been dry in the Colorado River basin, reducing spring & summer flow forecasts by ~10%. Considerable precipitation is forecast in the basin this week & could boost forecasts back to early March levels (9.9 MAF or 138% of normal). -A good cotton planting forecast calls for clear skies with highs above 80F & lows above 47F. ROLL APR 2, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************ | **************** 730 *************** | ************************************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 1 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 25 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 26 - APR 1 This Week : APR 2 - APR 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 46 35 80 ---- Normal 82 47 35 78 Recorded 83 47 36 81 0.00 2016 79 45 38 66 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.3 MAR 31 ; Min = 68.2 MAR 26 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -An active storm track located north of AZ will make for variable temperatures this week. Breezy & mild conditions Monday will be followed by windy & cooler conditions Tueday. High pressure will rebuild over AZ mid-week resulting in very warm conditions only to be followed by another trough of low pressure that will bring breezy & cooler conditions this weekend. Significant precipitation is not expected this week; temperatures should average slightly above normal. -March precipitation was below normal in the Colorado River basin, reducing spring/summer flow forecasts by ~10%. The decision regarding lake equalization (extra water release from Powell to Mead) is expected sometime later this month. ROLL APR 9, 2017 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************************** | ****************** 828 ****************** | ***************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 8 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 1 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 2 - APR 8 This Week : APR 9 - APR 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 47 35 78 ---- Normal 82 47 35 78 Recorded 89 47 38 99 0.00 2016 88 52 45 104 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72 APR 6 ; Min = 67.8 APR 1 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in sunny & warm conditions & very low humidity. Expect mild evenings with daytime temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal. Some breezy conditions may develop mid-week with the movement of storm systems across the Great Basin. Long range forecasts suggest another storm system could impact AZ this weekend or early next week. -Heat unit (HU) accumululation is running above normal & planting windows are open at most locations. Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before HU accumulation exceeds 700. The forecasted temp- eratures this week should lead to acceptable soil temperatures for planting. -April projections for the Colorado River should be released by BOR this week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 9, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 2/1 **************** 804 +13 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************* 672 +9 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************ 580 +8 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15******** 409 +5 days |v | | | | | | | | 4/1 **** 184 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 9 v = Heat Units on APR 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 926; Last year = 883 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 96 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : This Week : HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 47 35 78 ---- Normal 85 48 34 88 Recorded 88 47 36 96 0.00 2016 82 52 53 87 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .46" .37" .37" .37" .37" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 5/5 5/6 5/7 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will continue to dominate AZ weather this week, producing sunny & very warm conditions along with very low humidity. Daytime temperatures will ex- ceed 90F in most production areas & may reach 100F in the low deserts. Windy con- ditions are expected late this week as a storm system moves across the Great Basin. -Heat unit (HU) accumulation is running above normal & planting windows are open at all locations. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties as soon as possible, preferably before HU accumulation exceeds the 700-800 range. -Early cotton in Yuma Co. should be at or beyond pinhead square which typically occurs at ~700 HUs after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 23, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 2/1 ******************* 928 +14 days | v| | | | | | | | 2/15**************** 796 +10 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************** 704 +10 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15*********** 533 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ****** 308 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 16 v = Heat Units on APR 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1050; Last year = 970 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 125 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 16 - APR 22 This Week : APR 23 - APR 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 85 48 34 88 ---- Normal 87 50 35 97 Recorded 94 54 42 125 0.00 2016 93 50 36 112 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .69" .51" .42" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will weaken early this week as a strong trough of low pressure develops over the West. Expect windy weather with gradual cooling through mid- week followed by more windy weather & much cooler temperatures by the weekend. Precipitation associated with this storm system is expected to remain north of most cotton production areas--the exception may be southeast AZ. -The warm, dry March weather reduced projected spring/summer flow in the Upper Colorado River, eliminating the option for much higher water releases to Lake Mead. That said, BOR is expected to release 9.0 MAF to Mead which should keep Mead above 1075'& avoid a shortage declaration for Water Year 2018. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 30, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 2/1 ********************* 1047 +13 days | | v | | | | | | | 2/15****************** 915 +9 days | v | | | | | | | 3/1 **************** 823 +9 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************* 652 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********* 427 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 23 v = Heat Units on APR 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1169; Last year = 1082 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 119 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 23 - APR 29 This Week : APR 23 - MAY 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 50 35 97 ---- Normal 90 52 37 108 Recorded 90 55 42 119 0.00 2016 82 50 40 83 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .92" .73" .59" .46" .46" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will redevelop over AZ this week, resulting in warm weather with clear skies & light winds. Temperatures are expected to reach the 100F level by mid-week at elevations below 2000'. Another strong storm system is projected to move into CA this weekend, bringing another round of windy conditions with much cooler temperatures. Current forecasts indicate this storm may stall in the area producing a more prolonged impact. Precipitation is also possible in/near cotton production areas as early as Sunday/Monday. The current 8-14 day forecast shows acool, wet bias for AZ (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/). -The Bureau of Reclamation is expected to release 9.0 MAF to Mead which should keep Mead above 1075'& avoid a shortage declaration for Water Year 2018. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 7, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 2/1 ************************ 1176 +12 days | | v | | | | | | 2/15********************* 1044 +9 days | | v| | | | | | | 3/1 ******************* 960 +9 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/15**************** 798 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 569 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 6 v = Heat Units on APR 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1298; Last year = 1165 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 129 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 30 - MAY 6 This Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 90 52 37 108 ---- Normal 92 54 37 118 Recorded 97 55 43 129 0.00 2016 88 52 47 101 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.05" .86" .75" .52" .43" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A strong storm system will slowly migrate across the Southwest early this week, resulting in breezy & cool conditions with a chance for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday. High pressure will redevelop over AZ late in the week, result- ing in a return to above normal temperatures by the weekend. Long-term forecasts project the development of another strong storm by the middle of next week. The current 8-14 day forecast (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/) exhibits a strong bias for below normal temperatures in AZ. -Crop development is running above normal. Important early development milestones include pinhead square, susceptible square and first flower which occur at ~700, 900 and 1200 HUs after planting, respectively. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 14, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 2/1 ************************* 1274 +10 days | | | v | | | | | | 2/15*********************** 1142 +7 days | | |v | | | | | | 3/1 ********************* 1058 +7 days | | v | | | | | | | 3/15****************** 896 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 667 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 13 v = Heat Units on MAY 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1396; Last year = 1266 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 98 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 7 - MAY 13 This Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 54 37 118 ---- Normal 95 56 39 128 Recorded 85 54 45 98 0.05 2016 95 55 50 125 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1" .85" .75" .56" .36" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A series of storm systems will pass north of AZ this week, resulting in breezy conditions & below normal temperatures. Daytime temperatures will remain below 90F for much of the week with the coolest temperatures expected Tuesday. These storm systems lack moisture & precipitation chances are low this week, peaking at 10% on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to return to normal by the weekend. -Colorado River flow into Lake Powell is running 10% above normal for Water Year 2017. Flow projections for April-July snow melt season are ~23% above normal. -Crop development is running above normal. Important early development milestones include pinhead square, susceptible square & first flower which occur at ~700, 900 &1200 HUs after planting, respectively (see graph above for local conditions). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 21, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | 2/1 **************************** 1377 +7 days | | | v| | | | | | 2/15************************* 1245 +5 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/1 *********************** 1161 +5 days | | v | | | | | | 3/15******************** 999 +3 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 770 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 20 v = Heat Units on MAY 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1499; Last year = 1391 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 103 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 14 - MAY 20 This Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 56 39 128 ---- Normal 97 58 41 140 Recorded 88 52 39 103 0.00 2016 91 57 51 131 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.37" 1.18" 1.06" .83" .5" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Strong high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in hot days &mild evenings through mid-week. Daytime temperatures will exceed 100F in most low desert production areas. A trough of low pressure will develop over the West beginning Thursday, producing breezy conditions & slightly cooler temperatures late in the week. No precipitation is expected with the passage of this trough. -The first post-plant irrigation typically occurs between 800 & 1000 HUs after planting. Coarse textured soils are often irrigated at the low end of this range while the upper end of the HU range may be appropriate for medium/finer soils. -Flow into Lake Powell for Water Year 2017 is running 14% above normal. Lake levels have increased an average of 6"/day for the past two weeks. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 28, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 2/1 ****************************** 1521 +8 days | | | |v | | | | | 2/15**************************** 1389 +5 days | | | v| | | | | | 3/1 ************************** 1305 +5 days | | | v | | | | | | 3/15*********************** 1143 +3 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ****************** 914 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 27 v = Heat Units on MAY 20; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1643; Last year = 1522 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 144 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 21 - MAY 27 This Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 97 58 41 140 ---- Normal 96 59 43 138 Recorded 101 58 43 144 0.00 2016 88 54 42 110 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.72" 1.51" 1.38" 1.12" .76" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A weak low pressure system over Baja will result in higher humidity levels & warm temperatures early this week. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the high elevation areas of eastern AZ. Slightly cooler temperatures &lower humidity will result with the passage of this system mid-week. Another warming trend is expected by the weekend. -The first post-plant irrigation typically occurs between 800 & 1000 HUs after planting (see graph above). Coarse textured soils are often irrigated at the low end of this range while the upper end of the HU range may be appropriate for medium/finer soils. -Flow into Lake Powell for Water Year 2017 continues to run 14% above normal. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 4, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | 2/1 ********************************* 1671 +7 days | | | | v | | | | | 2/15******************************* 1539 +5 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ***************************** 1455 +5 days | | | v| | | | | | 3/15************************** 1293 +3 days | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************* 1064 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 3 v = Heat Units on MAY 27; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1793; Last year = 1780 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 150 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 28 - JUN 3 This Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 60 42 149 ---- Normal 99 61 44 149 Recorded 100 60 44 150 0.00 2016 100 66 52 171 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.89" 1.69" 1.56" 1.31" .96" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure will strengthen over AZ early this week, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the season. This high pressure system will shift to the east later in the week, allowing for a few degrees of cooling. Humidity levels will remain low in central & western AZ, but will remain above normal along the New Mexico border where a few high elevation thunderstorms are possible. Expect temperatures to average about 5 degrees above normal this week. -Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can result in square loss & push more of the primary bloom period into the more stressful monsoon season that typically develops by mid-July. -The water level in Lake Powell will exceed the 2016 peak level early this week. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 11, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 ************************************* 1835 +8 days | | | | v | | | | 2/15********************************** 1703 +6 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/1 ******************************** 1619 +6 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/15***************************** 1457 +4 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************* 1228 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 10 v = Heat Units on JUN 3; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1957; Last year = 1951 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 163 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 4 - JUN 10 This Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 99 61 44 149 ---- Normal 103 62 46 158 Recorded 103 64 44 163 0.00 2016 102 61 50 152 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.28" 2.07" 1.93" 1.67" 1.29" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Breezy & cooler weather Monday will give way to strengthening high pressure by mid-week, resulting in very hot & dry conditions by the weekend. Temperatures this coming weekend should exceed 100F in all production areas with readings above 110F likely in the low deserts. -Growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress as evaporative demand will run above normal this week. Water stress can result in square loss & push more of the primary bloom period into the monsoon season. -Runoff into Lake Powell remains above normal & the lake is approaching 60% of capacity (3626')--its highest the highest level since August 2012. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 18, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 2/1 **************************************** 1986 +7 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15************************************* 1854 +5 days | | | | |v | | | | 3/1 *********************************** 1770 +5 days | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************** 1608 +3 days | | | |v | | | | | 4/1 **************************** 1379 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 17 v = Heat Units on JUN 10; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2108; Last year = 2103 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 151 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 11 - JUN 17 This Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 103 62 46 158 ---- Normal 105 66 48 171 Recorded 102 60 37 151 0.00 2016 111 73 47 193 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.44" 2.24" 2.1" 1.85" 1.49" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Intense high pressure will develop over AZ early this week, resulting in very hot & dry conditions. Expect record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday which translates to high temperatures above 115F in low elevation production areas. A slight amount of moisture is expected to leak into the southeast AZ this week, resulting in afternoon, mostly dry thunderstorms that could generate outflows in parts of central AZ that could produce localized high winds & dust. Slightly cooler & more humid conditions are expected by the weekend. -Monitor soil & plant water status closely. Water stress produces higher foliage temperatures which given the current forecast could lead to tissue damage. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 25, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | 2/1 ******************************************* 2174 +7 days | | | | | v | | | | 2/15***************************************** 2042 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 *************************************** 1958 +6 days | | | | |v | | | | 3/15************************************ 1796 +4 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1567 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 24 v = Heat Units on JUN 17; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2296; Last year = 2296 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 190 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 18 - JUN 24 This Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 66 48 171 ---- Normal 108 68 51 178 Recorded 113 71 50 190 0.00 2016 108 79 57 206 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.98" 2.96" 2.8" 2.5" 2.08" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 Stress ns ns L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -The high pressure system responsible for last week's record heat will weaken & move south of the area by mid-week. This pattern shift will result in moderating temperatures with very low humidity. Precipitation will be limited to some high elevation thunderstorms in southeastern AZ on Monday & Tuesday. -Monitor soil & plant water status closely. Evaporative demand has been running above normal for several weeks. Shorter irrigation intervals may be warranted. -The water level in Lake Powell continues to rise & now rests at 3634', or ~63% of capacity. At present the lake is 15' higher than last year which equates to ~1.6 MAF of additional water storage. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 2, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 *********************************************** 2363 +8 days | | | | | v | | | 2/15********************************************* 2231 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/1 ******************************************* 2147 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 3/15**************************************** 1985 +4 days | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1756 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 1 v = Heat Units on JUN 24; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2485; Last year = 2502 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 188 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 25 - JUL 1 This Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 68 51 178 ---- Normal 106 71 56 186 Recorded 111 71 47 188 0.00 2016 109 73 55 193 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 3.09" 3.09" 3.09" 2.96" 2.52" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 Stress L2 L1 L1 ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Expect hot temperatures with increasing humidity. Moisture began entering the region over the weekend & is expected to remain in place much of the week. Temp- eratures are expected to climb back to the 110F level in central & western AZ late this week, setting up the potential for additional heat stress. Afternoon & evening thunderstorms are possible each day in southeast AZ, with expansion into central AZ later in the week. -Heat stress conditions developed early this year due to the record temperatures in late June. Cooler & drier weather last week led to less stressful conditions. Heat stress causes young 1-5-day old bolls to abort, lowering fruit retention. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 9, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 *************************************************** 2568 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15************************************************* 2436 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 *********************************************** 2352 +6 days | | | | | v| | | | 3/15******************************************** 2190 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *************************************** 1961 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 8 v = Heat Units on JUL 1; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2690; Last year = 2695 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 205 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 2 - JUL 8 This Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 71 56 186 ---- Normal 108 74 59 194 Recorded 112 79 54 205 0.00 2016 111 73 46 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 3.26" 3.26" 3.26" 3.26" 3.07" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 Stress ns L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon circulation has now developed across the state. Expect cooler & more humid conditions this week with a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. The high pressure system responsible for directing the monsoon flow will fluctuate in position some, resulting in up & down days for storm activity. Longer term forecast models suggest enhanced precipitation this coming weekend. -Last week's high temperatures & moderate humidity produced Level 2 heat stress in some low elevation production areas. Level 2 stress often results in moderate to heavy fruit shed (young bolls). Fruit retention typically recovers with less stressful conditions. For more details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 16, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 2/1 ******************************************************** 2777 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 2/15***************************************************** 2645 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 *************************************************** 2561 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************ 2399 +5 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ******************************************* 2170 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 15 v = Heat Units on JUL 8; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2899; Last year = 2889 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 209 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 9 - JUL 15 This Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 108 74 59 194 ---- Normal 107 76 61 197 Recorded 109 80 62 209 0.22 2016 111 81 55 209 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 3.08" 3.08" 3.08" 3.08" 3.08" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Monsoon circulation will remain in place this week, resulting in cooler temp- eratures, high humidity & the chance for afternoon & evening storms each day. Heavy precipitation is possible Monday & Tuesday with the passage of an east- erly wave. Temperatures should average slightly below normal this week. -High humidity in combination with high temperatures produces heat stress which reduces fruit retention due to the loss of young bolls. Level 2 heat stress typically produces a more consistent & damaging level of fruit loss & prolonged periods of L2 stress can damage developing squares resulting in extended periods of low fruit retention. For more details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 23, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 ************************************************************ 2986 +9 days | | | | | | v | | 2/15********************************************************* 2854 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/1 ******************************************************* 2770 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 3/15**************************************************** 2608 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************ 2379 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 22 v = Heat Units on JUL 15; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3108; Last year = 3098 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 209 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 16 - JUL 22 This Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 76 61 197 ---- Normal 106 76 63 197 Recorded 107 80 62 209 0.00 2016 111 82 60 214 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.77" 2.77" 2.77" 2.77" 2.77" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 Stress L2 L2 L2 L1 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A humid & potentially wet Monday will be followed by a drying & warming trend through Thursday. Heavy rain is possible Monday in central & western production areas. A reduction in monsoon activity will begin Tuesday & continue into Thurs- day. Expect temperatures to return to normal by mid-week with lower humidity. Precipitation will be less widespread & mostly resident in high elevation areas. Amore favorable monsoon flow regime is expected to return this weekend. -Heat stress lessened in many areas last week due to cooling temperatures. Some areas continued to see L2 stress where night temperatures remained elevated. -Check out the new Cotton Weather webpage: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 30, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 2/1 **************************************************************** 3196 +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15************************************************************* 3064 +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 ************************************************************ 2980 +7 days | | | | | | v| | | 3/15******************************************************** 2818 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 **************************************************** 2589 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 29 v = Heat Units on JUL 22; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3318; Last year = 3312 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 210 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 23 - JUL 29 This Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 76 63 197 ---- Normal 107 75 60 197 Recorded 106 82 60 210 0.00 2016 108 82 63 214 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 2.55" 2.75" 2.76" 2.76" 2.76" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 Stress L2 L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -A moist monsoon pattern is expected to remain in place much of the week, result- ing in near normal temperatures & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. Current forecasts suggest Tuesday through Thursday could be the best days for precipitation due to the passage of a tropical, easterly wave. -The recent cooler conditions have reduced heat stress in most areas. Exceptions to this general observation have occurred in areas where cloudiness and/or winds have kept night temperatures near/above 80F. -A wet bias remains in the forecast for the next 8-14 days for much of AZ. See new Cotton Weather Webpage for details: www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 6, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v| | 2/1 ******************************************************************** 3403 +9 days | | | | | | | v | | 2/15***************************************************************** 3271 +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/1 **************************************************************** 3187 +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15************************************************************ 3025 +6 days | | | | | | v| | | 4/1 ******************************************************** 2796 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 5 v = Heat Units on JUL 29; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3525; Last year = 3526 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 208 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 30 - AUG 5 This Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 75 60 197 ---- Normal 107 74 61 195 Recorded 105 80 67 208 0.70 2016 108 81 59 208 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.91" 2.09" 2.2" 2.37" 2.37" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 Stress L1 L2 L1 L2 L1 L1 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Much drier air moved into AZ late last week, leading to clear skies with warm days & much lower night temperatures. Heat stress conditions diminished with the arrival of the drier air. Dry conditions will remain through mid-week, resulting in a warming trend that will bring low desert temperatures back above 110F. A return to more favorable monsoon flow along with potential impacts from a dying Atlantic tropical storm increase the chances for precipitation late this week. -The "spring" snow melt season in the Colorado Basin concluded on 31 July. Flow into Lake Powell totaled 8.18 MAF or ~14% above the 30-year average of 7.16 MAF. -Check out new Cotton Weather Webpage : www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 13, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v3607 | 2/1 ********************************************************************* +10 days | | | | | | | v 3475 | 2/15********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | v| 3391 | 3/1 ******************************************************************** +8 days | | | | | | | v | | 3/15***************************************************************** 3229 +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ************************************************************ 3000 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 12 v = Heat Units on AUG 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3729; Last year = 3734 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 203 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 6 - AUG 12 This Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 61 195 ---- Normal 106 75 61 196 Recorded 109 77 59 203 0.00 2016 109 81 64 210 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.88" 2.08" 2.21" 2.46" 2.72" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 Stress L1 L1 L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Another surge of very dry air will enter AZ Monday, shutting off the monsoon through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in central & eastern AZ Monday during the transition to this drier air mass. Expect clear skies, low humidity & near normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Longer-term fore- casts call for a return to monsoon flow this weekend. -Boll maturity estimates can assist with decisions related to crop termination. The HU requirements from flowering to the hard green and open boll stages are 600 & 1000 HUs, respectively. Go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm for more details -- click on the button labeled Boll Maturity Estimates. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 20, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3798 | 2/1 *********************************************************************+10 days | | | | | | | | 3666 | 2/15********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | | 3582 | 3/1 ********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | v 3420 | 3/15******************************************************************** +7 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 **************************************************************** 3191 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 19 v = Heat Units on AUG 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3920; Last year = 3944 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 191 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 13 - AUG 19 This Week : AUG 20 - AUG 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 75 61 196 ---- Normal 107 74 60 194 Recorded 106 73 49 191 0.00 2016 104 77 60 200 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.57" 1.77" 1.9" 2.15" 2.49" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 Stress L2 L1 ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -Sunny & dry conditions with near normal temperatures will continue through Tues- day. A trough of low pressure will impact AZ mid-week, elevating humidity levels &increasing the chances for precipitation. Drier & hotter conditions return on Friday & this coming weekend, reducing the chances for precipitation. -Long range forecasts were updated last week. Forecasts for September exhibit a weak to moderate bias for above normal temperatures & no bias for precipitation. The 90-day forecast for September thru November exhibits a strong bias for above normal temperatures & no bias relative to precipitation. For more details go to www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm -- click on 30-Day or 90-Day Forecast buttons. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 27, 2017 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4002 | 2/1 *********************************************************************+10 days | | | | | | | | 3870v | 2/15********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | | 3786 | 3/1 ********************************************************************* +8 days | | | | | | | | v3624 | 3/15********************************************************************* +7 days | | | | | | | v| 3395 | 4/1 ******************************************************************** +6 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 26 v = Heat Units on AUG 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 4124; Last year = 4144 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 204 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 20 - AUG 26 This Week : AUG 27 - SEP 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 74 60 194 ---- Normal 106 74 59 193 Recorded 108 78 57 204 0.00 2016 108 73 53 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): 1.14" 1.33" 1.44" 1.66" 1.98" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 Stress L1 L1 L1 L2 L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- -High pressure over the Great Basin will produce hot & generally dry conditions this week. Some moisture will remain in eastern AZ & may produce some precipita- tion mid-week. Temperatures will run 4-6 degrees above normal & may exceed 110F in western AZ. Long-term forecasts suggest a tropical storm in the Pacific may lead to a surge of moisture, cooler temperatures & greater chances for precip- itation this weekend. To monitor forecasts go to the new Cotton Weather Page & click on any of the forecast buttons (www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm). -This will be the final advisory for the 2017 production season. Have a safe & profitable harvest season! ROLL MAR 4, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************* | ******** 428 ******** | ********************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 3 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 25 - MAR 3 This Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 42 35 44 ---- Normal 74 41 33 47 Recorded 71 32 27 31 0.00 2017 72 41 43 42 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 58.1 MAR 3 ; Min = 54.5 FEB 25 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ this week resulting in mostly clear weather with above normal temperatures. While no precipitation is expected during the work week, long range forecasts remain undecided regarding the weekend, with some models suggesting cooler conditions & a slight chance for rainsfall Sunday. Growers planning to plant this week should monitor updated weekend forecasts. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to https://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 70% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 47% of normal (3.4 MAF). ROLL MAR 11, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************* | ********** 493 ********** | ************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 10 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 3 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 This Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 41 33 47 ---- Normal 77 42 34 57 Recorded 79 44 28 65 0.00 2017 73 41 42 46 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 65.3 MAR 10 ; Min = 58.1 MAR 5 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will bring sunny, warm & dry weather through mid-week. A trough of low pressure will impact AZ late this week, resulting in windy conditions with higher humidity, cooler temperatures & a chance for rainfall beginning Friday. Growers considering planting this week are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as most production areas are expected to receive some rainfall this weekend. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. For local soil temperatures see https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 68% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 44% of normal (3.2 MAF). ROLL MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************** | ************ 572 ************ | ***************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 77 42 34 57 ---- Normal 82 45 34 74 Recorded 79 50 43 79 0.00 2017 84 43 40 80 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.5 MAR 13 ; Min = 64 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. ROLL MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************** | ************ 572 ************ | ***************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 77 42 34 57 ---- Normal 82 45 34 74 Recorded 79 50 43 79 0.00 2017 84 43 40 80 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.5 MAR 13 ; Min = 64 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. ROLL MAR 25, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************** | ************** 649 ************* | ******************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 24 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 17 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 8 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 This Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 45 34 74 ---- Normal 83 45 34 78 Recorded 80 47 38 76 0.00 2017 97 50 48 116 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.9 MAR 23 ; Min = 63.7 MAR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. ROLL APR 1, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************* | **************** 734 **************** | ************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 31 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 This Week : APR 1 - APR 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 83 45 34 78 ---- Normal 82 47 35 80 Recorded 84 48 34 85 0.00 2017 84 50 46 93 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 70.7 MAR 31 ; Min = 65.5 MAR 26 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 8, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 2/1 ************ 622 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15********** 496 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ********* 444 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15****** 298 +4 days | | | | | | | | | 4/1 ** 105 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 7 v = Heat Units on MAR 31; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 856; Last year = 743 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 119 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 1 - APR 7 This Week : APR 8 - APR 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 81 47 36 76 ---- Normal 84 48 34 86 Recorded 91 55 43 119 0.00 2017 88 48 38 98 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .36" .36" .36" .36" .36" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Sunny, hot & dry through mid-week with daytime temperatures approaching record levels. A strong storm system will pass north of AZ Thursday, resulting in windy &much cooler conditions Friday & Saturday. No precipitation is expected with this system. Warmer conditions will return by Sunday. --Warm spring weather has resulted in above normal HU accumulation. Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Minimum soil temperatures should be 60F to ensure acceptable germination. Go to https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review local AZMET values. --April 1 Colorado River flow projection: 3.1 MAF into Lake Powell (<50% normal). ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 15, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 2/1 *************** 735 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************ 609 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 *********** 557 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15******** 411 +5 days |v | | | | | | | | 4/1 **** 218 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 14 v = Heat Units on APR 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 969; Last year = 841 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 113 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 8 - APR 14 This Week : APR 15 - APR 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 84 48 34 86 ---- Normal 87 49 34 94 Recorded 91 54 31 113 0.00 2017 90 46 36 100 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .44" .44" .44" .44" .44" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A pair of storm systems will impact AZ this week. The first system will enter the region Monday & Tuesday, bringing high winds Monday followed by much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Warmer conditions return Wednesday only to be followed by another windy & dry storm system Thursday & Friday. High pressure returns next weekend, resulting in a return to warm & dry conditions with less wind. Neither of this week's storm systems offer much chance for precipitation. --Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 22, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | | 2/1 **************** 819 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 2/15************** 693 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/1 ************* 641 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15********** 495 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ****** 302 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 21 v = Heat Units on APR 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1053; Last year = 941 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 84 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 15 - APR 21 This Week : APR 22 - APR 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 49 34 94 ---- Normal 89 52 37 105 Recorded 84 47 32 84 0.00 2017 95 54 42 126 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .48" .36" .36" .36" .36" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in very warm temp- eratures, scattered high elevation clouds & low humidity. A weak disturbance may produce a few high elevation showers in far eastern AZ late in the week. --Medium maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700-800 (see Planting Date Advisory graph above). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY APR 29, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 2/1 ******************* 956 +8 days | v | | | | | | | 2/15***************** 830 +5 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/1 **************** 778 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************* 632 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********* 439 +5 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to APR 28 v = Heat Units on APR 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1190; Last year = 1067 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 136 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 22 - APR 28 This Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 52 37 105 ---- Normal 91 53 36 113 Recorded 98 57 40 136 0.00 2017 90 54 39 116 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .73" .55" .48" .43" .43" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A strong low pressure system will impact AZ during the first half of the week. Expect windy & much cooler conditions through Wednesday. Temperature will run 8- 10 degrees below normal by mid-week. Precipitation is possible with the passage of this system, particularly in northern & high elevation production areas. Hot &dry weather returns Friday as high pressure redevelops over the region. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. ROLL COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 6, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 2/1 ********************* 1053 +6 days | | v| | | | | | | 2/15******************* 927 +3 days | | v | | | | | | | 3/1 ****************** 875 +6 days | v| | | | | | | | 3/15*************** 729 +4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 *********** 536 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 5 v = Heat Units on APR 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1287; Last year = 1183 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 98 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 This Week : MAY 6 - MAY 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 91 53 36 113 ---- Normal 94 56 39 126 Recorded 87 52 41 98 0.00 2017 95 57 43 125 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 2/1 2/15 3/1 3/15 4/1 Water Use (last week): .83" .66" .59" .41" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure over the Southwest will produce hot & dry conditions for much of the week. Expect near record high temperatures mid-week. Windy & cooler conditions are expected late this week as a storm system passes through the Great Basin. This storm system is not expected to generate precipitation in cotton production areas. --Forecasts for Colorado River spring flow into Lake Powell now stand at 3 MAF or 42% of the average flow, which is ~7.2 MAF. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5".