Areas
of Agreement Among Selected Futurists |
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-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
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- Complexity.
- All activities are becoming more complex, due to more people involved and
new types of technology and organizational levels.
- Technology.
- The primary driver of change is technology. The most important examples
are: telematics (telecommunications/electronics), biotechnology (primarily
on agriculture and health), materials (primarily in manufactured products
and construction).
- Importance of Solving the Energy Transition.
- The end of oil as dominant energy source in the next 20-50 years will require
a transition to other energy forms. This transition will not be accomplished
without turbulence.
- Slowdown of World Economic Growth.
- Increases in energy costs, world population, and greater demand for resources
will slow economic growth.
- Transition with Continuity.
- Great changes will occur within a framework of continuity that will keep
the basic shape of society much as we have known it.
- Avoidance of Nuclear War
- Full scale nuclear war is not seen as a threat as great as that of smaller
nations gaining access to nuclear weapons. If a nuclear war should occur,
it would cause a major discontinuity in anticipated trends.
- Interdependence on the Globe.
- Becoming more interdependent economically and socially will cause serious
issues about purely nationalistic strategies. Businesses may be better at
facilitating this interdependence than governments.
- Decline of the U.S.
- A decline is expected for the U.S. both economically and militarily within
the global context. The U.S. will take its place "among equals".
- Education.
- Education requires much improvement but many doubt the educational system
is able to do it. Increased competition will occur for traditional educational
institutions.
- Demands of the Information Society
- As the information society becomes more important, it will place new demands
on literacy and competence. New skills and training will be important and
the responses of traditional educational institutions may not adequately address
these needs.
- Aging of the U.S. Population.
- This could represent a real culture shock for a nation that has been young
for most of its history. Europe could be a model of things to occur in inter-generational
conflicts and loss of societal flexibility.
Futurists Viewpoints | Future
Thinkers
Note: a primary reference for much of this material is Coates,
Joseph and Jennifer Jarratt. What Futurists Believe, A World Future Society
Book, Published by Lamond in 1989. 340 pages.
Return to "Anticipating
the Future" course home page
Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell