Areas of Agreement Among Selected Futurists
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

Complexity.
All activities are becoming more complex, due to more people involved and new types of technology and organizational levels.
Technology.
The primary driver of change is technology. The most important examples are: telematics (telecommunications/electronics), biotechnology (primarily on agriculture and health), materials (primarily in manufactured products and construction).
Importance of Solving the Energy Transition.
The end of oil as dominant energy source in the next 20-50 years will require a transition to other energy forms. This transition will not be accomplished without turbulence.
Slowdown of World Economic Growth.
Increases in energy costs, world population, and greater demand for resources will slow economic growth.
Transition with Continuity.
Great changes will occur within a framework of continuity that will keep the basic shape of society much as we have known it.
Avoidance of Nuclear War
Full scale nuclear war is not seen as a threat as great as that of smaller nations gaining access to nuclear weapons. If a nuclear war should occur, it would cause a major discontinuity in anticipated trends.
Interdependence on the Globe.
Becoming more interdependent economically and socially will cause serious issues about purely nationalistic strategies. Businesses may be better at facilitating this interdependence than governments.
Decline of the U.S.
A decline is expected for the U.S. both economically and militarily within the global context. The U.S. will take its place "among equals".
Education.
Education requires much improvement but many doubt the educational system is able to do it. Increased competition will occur for traditional educational institutions.
Demands of the Information Society
As the information society becomes more important, it will place new demands on literacy and competence. New skills and training will be important and the responses of traditional educational institutions may not adequately address these needs.
Aging of the U.S. Population.
This could represent a real culture shock for a nation that has been young for most of its history. Europe could be a model of things to occur in inter-generational conflicts and loss of societal flexibility.

Futurists Viewpoints | Future Thinkers

Note: a primary reference for much of this material is Coates, Joseph and Jennifer Jarratt. What Futurists Believe, A World Future Society Book, Published by Lamond in 1989. 340 pages.


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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell