Areas
of Disagreement Among Selected Futurists |
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-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
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- Societal Change.
- The ability or capacity of individuals or groups to adapt to change is unclear.
- Technological Change.
- While the importance of science and technology is clear, there is debate
on its value and function in society. It is hard to anticipate the effects
of these changes, and it is not clear whether technology drives a change or
need or it is the other way around.
- Images of the Future.
- The image one has of the future is shaped by a person's basic outlook (e.g.,
pessimistic/optimistic) and general assumptions about the world. Thus, there
are a variety of images rather than a composite.
- Economic Factors.
- The relative effects on the economy of major trends are unclear (e.g., microelectronics
vs. workforce, international money flow stability, role of USSR on world trade,
or the abilities of less developed countries to catch up to the developed
countries).
- World Population Growth.
- Most think the world population cannot continue to grow. What would a world
of 8-10 billion be like?
- Military, Defense and Disarmament.
- The U.S. cannot support the military infrastructure at current levels for
much longer. The impact of reduced military spending will have major consequences
on the U.S. and perhaps world economy but the outcome is not certain.
- Africa.
- Will the world care what happens to Africa? Issues related to AIDS (it is
much worse in Africa than in other parts of the world), political stability,
and general economy.
- Values and Attitudes.
- Societal values do not impact significantly on driving forces of change,
but their influences are not well understood or predictable.
Futurists Viewpoints | Future
Thinkers
Note: a primary reference for much of this material is Coates,
Joseph and Jennifer Jarratt. What Futurists Believe, A World Future Society
Book, Published by Lamond in 1989. 340 pages.
Return to "Anticipating
the Future" course home page
Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell