anticipating the future - a short course
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

A Short List for Finding Results for Current Trends and Driving Forces

The purpose of these references is to identify a range of works that that are broadly available. The focus is on general futures dealing with driving forces and trends, not detailed facts about specific trends or issues.

References are grouped as: web sites related to driving forces of change, futures organizations (U.S. and international), newsletters and periodicals, and selected individuals. For general futures information, go to http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/shortcourse/

Web sites related to driving forces of change

Selected sites that have driving force selections or trends and statistics.

Fedstats: gateway to statistics in over 100 federal agencies. Information organized by topic, geographic location, and agency. Includes press releases and summary reports, and key statistics.
http://www.fedstats.gov/

Horizon. The Horizon On-Ramp Page includes links to valuable information databases, articles, and resources in the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (or STEEP) sectors so that we can plan more effectively.
http://horizon.unc.edu/onramp/

FutureStudio - turning foresight into value.. A site with lots of referemce materials related to scenario building and scenario results. Inducing tools and links to other studies for world futures in the 2020 or so time frame.
http://www.futurestudio.org/

George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies. Since 1985 Professor Bill Halal has conducted a periodic survey of 50 authorities to forecast advances in all technical fields – it is sort of a virtual think tank to track the Technology Revolution.
http://GWForecast.gwu.edu (individual articles by Halal are at http://home.gwu.edu/~halal/Articles/articles.html)

Global Trends 2005, Center for Strategic and International Studies. The study, Global Trends 2005: The Challenges of a New Millennium, takes advantage of ongoing work at CSIS as well as new research to outline the future of broad trends in such areas as economy, environment, conflict, society, and science and technology.
http://www.csis.org/gt2005/

World Tables Dataset Guide, World Bank. Published annually and includes economic and social data organized by country or subject.
http://www.ciesin.org/IC/wbank/wtables.html

Futures Organizations (United States)

Some of these organizations have a more narrow focus or values bias, but most cover the broad range of futures topics.

Battelle. Battelle's team of technology forecasters provides insight into the technological innovations that will spell success for industry and government in the future. Note the focus is on technology.
http://www.battelle.org/forecasts/

Brookings Institution. The Brookings Institution is an independent, nonpartisan organization devoted to research, analysis, education, and publication focused on public policy issues in the areas of economics, foreign policy, and governance.
http://www.brookings.org

Global Business Network. As a worldwide membership organization, GBN engages in a collaborative exploration of the future, discovering the frontiers of knowledge and creating innovative tools for strategic action. They provide consulting and training and have a very good reputation on developing scenarios, and list examples on their site. They also provide an annual listing of recommended books to read (that cover a large range of topics).
http://www.gbn.org/ (book review lists at http://www.gbn.org/BookClubSelectionListDisplayServlet.srv)

Hudson Institute. Hudson performs applied research toward policy issues and works to counsel and guide policy change, applying our ideas whenever possible alongside other leaders in communities, businesses, non-profit organizations and governments alike.
http://www.hudson.org/

Institute for the Future. Based in Menlo Park, California on Sand Hill Road, known as the Wall Street of the West, IFTF is an independent, non-profit research firm specializing in long-term forecasting. The firm develops an annual 10 year forecasts (with summarize available on the web).
http://iftf.org/

Rand Corporation. They see their job as helping to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. This includes developing new knowledge to inform decision makers without suggesting any specific course of action but often they spelling out the range of available options and analyze their relative advantages and disadvantages.
http://www.rand.org/

World Future Society. The World Future Society is an association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. The Society was founded in 1966 and is chartered as a nonprofit educational and scientific organization in Washington, D.C., U.S.A. They develop 10 forecasts annually but also include a good deal of general information on the web site.
http://wfs.org/

U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook. The 2002-2003 edition provides descriptions of current conditions and expected trends in many occupations.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/

Futures Organizations (International)

These organizations range from independent, to support for a high level government focus, or for consortia or organizations of multiple parties. There is no equivalent organization for the United States government.

Finland Futures Research Center. The center is an organization for futures research, education and development, which has operations on local, national and international level. The Center produces and promotes visionary information on the future trends of society and the environment.
http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/default_eng.asp

Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission. The unit has three tasks: to monitor and evaluate European integration; to establish permanent relations with bodies involved in forecasting; and to work on specific briefs. It provides a number of reports. http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/index_en.htm

International Futures Program of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The OECD consists of 30 countries, including the US. The Program offers a number of distinguishing features: improved monitoring of the long-term economic and social horizon, with early warning on emerging issues; more accurate pinpointing of major developments and possible trend breaks; greater analytical appreciation of key long-term issues; and better dialogue and information-sharing to help set policy agendas and map strategy.
http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_33707_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Newsletters and Periodicals

These newsletters are broad based and futures directed. The one on energy is typical of more specific newsletters, but is listed because of the growing interest in the changes taking place in the energy field and as an example of specific newsletter formats.

EREN NETWORK NEWS - A weekly newsletter from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Network (EREN). Free subscription at:
http://www.eren.doe.gov/news/subscribe/.

Innovation Weekly – A weekly report on trends, strategies and innovations in business and technology. $18/year for paid subscribers; company-wide distribution licenses are also available for corporations, academic institutions, and nonprofit organizations.
http://www.NewsScan.com

Future Survey – A Monthly Abstract of Books, Articles, and Reports
Concerning Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future. $89 per year for individuals (12 monthly issues). Subscriptions for libraries and other institutions are $129 per year.

http://wfs.org/fsurv.htm

Selected Individuals

The two names below have been in the futures field for many years and are highly respected by their peers. Their writings will give additional perspectives on driving forces and futures issues. There are others in the field, but they are not listed because their web pages either don’t exist or are not useful in gaining additional information.

Joseph Coates. Consulting futurist, former principle of Coates and Jarrett and assistant director of the former U.S. Office of Technology Assessment. Web site provides large listing of articles, resources speeches, and issues analysis. Orientation is toward technology but is very broad.
http://josephcoates.com/

James Dator. Professor of Political Science at University of Hawaii, one of founders of World Futures Study Foundation and the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. His focus is on political and societal issues but is also very broad.
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/


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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell